— In 2025, the polypropylene market was faced with overproduction, weak demand and declining raw material costs. China increased exports by 29% to 3 million tons with new capacity of 6.4 million tons, increasing pressure on prices. In Europe, PMI exceeded 50 only once; in Turkey, capacity utilization was 40–60%. The market was oversaturated,” Zhumagulov noted.
The turning point, he said, was March 2026.
— The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has caused disruptions in supplies, logistics and a shutdown of production. Of the 28 million tons of capacity, about 21 million have been withdrawn in the Arabian Peninsula, and 7.5 million tons in Iran. The duration of the shutdowns ranged from months to a year or more, which created a global shortage, the expert explained.
Europe, which depended on Middle Eastern imports, according to Zhumagulov, received a multiple jump in prices – polypropylene quotes doubled. In Asia, rising gas prices from Qatar and other countries in the region have raised production costs, and capacity utilization in China has fallen from 76% to 63%. The key driver everywhere was the rise in prices of propane, naphtha and other raw materials.
Separately, the expert focused on the situation in Kazakhstan.
— Against the backdrop of what is happening, the KPI company is also forced to adjust its pricing policy. Since the beginning of the conflict, the price on the basis of FCA Atyrau has increased by 122,500 tenge – about 260 dollars, or about 19%. The company’s export prices increased significantly: in the European direction – by $1,000, or 110%, in the Turkish direction – by $650, or 72%. At the same time, the domestic market remains the lowest in terms of prices among all sales geographies of KPI and neighboring countries,” he emphasized.
Zhumagulov also drew attention to the fact that at the beginning of April, Chinese traders were offering polypropylene, including delivery and duties, at 720–750 thousand tenge including VAT – that is, more expensive than the current KPI prices on the domestic market.
— The reason for the growth is obvious: KPI purchases propane from Tengizchevroil according to a formula linked to world oil prices. This directly translates the global situation into the cost of the Kazakh manufacturer,” the expert concluded.
