The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted that the economy of Uzbekistan will grow by 6.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027. A potential slowdown in the Russian economy and increased inflationary pressures from the conflict in the Middle East are seen as key risks.
Economic activity in Central Asia and Mongolia remained high in early 2026, but there are signs of gradual moderation, according to a new report on the region by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
It is noted that strong domestic consumption and investment in the region continue to support growth. The services sector is the main driver along with construction and manufacturing.
“The negative effects have been exacerbated by protracted conflicts in the Middle East, which have led to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions and slower growth in the region’s largest trading and economic partners, Russia and China.
“Overall, growth prospects remain solid, but prospects increasingly depend on the pace of domestic reforms and efforts to strengthen resilience to external shocks,” the report said.
Uzbekistan
According to official figures, the rate of growth of Uzbekistan’s economy accelerated in the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP increased by 8.7 percent compared to the same period last year.
The EBRD attributed this growth primarily to domestic consumption. Increased remittances and rising wages have boosted the services sector. Industrial production also increased by 8%, and the construction sector by 15.5%.
The Bank forecasts that the economy of Uzbekistan will grow by 6.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027. Growth rates may be higher if privatization processes proceed faster than expected. The main risks are a possible slowdown in the Russian economy and an increase in inflationary pressure due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Kazakhstan
EBRD expects Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
In the first quarter of the year, the construction, transport and industrial sectors maintained growth. However, due to disruptions in the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and the accident at the Tengiz field, the production industry shrank by 11.4 percent.
The bank assessed volatility of oil prices, possible interruptions in oil export routes, and the slowdown in the economies of Russia and China as the main risks for the country’s economy.
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan maintains the highest economic growth rate in the region. EBRD forecasts that the country’s economy will grow by 8.7% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
At the beginning of the year, economic activity was higher due to industry, construction and trade. Investments in fixed capital increased by 25.5 percent.
At the same time, the secondary sanctions imposed by the European Union on Kyrgyzstan as part of the sanctions regime against Russia may put pressure on the country’s economy. With the 20th package of sanctions approved at the end of April, the export of dual-purpose goods from the EU to Kyrgyzstan was banned; and control over finance and logistics was strengthened.
In addition, high energy prices and the possibility of increased economic difficulties in Russia create additional risks for Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan’s economy grew by about 8 percent in the first quarter. This was contributed by the increase in the volume of trade, transport, communications, industry and electricity production.
EBRD expects the country’s economy to grow by 7.9% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
The bank noted Tajikistan’s high dependence on the Russian economy as its main weakness. The economic slowdown in Russia may have a negative impact on the volume of remittances sent by migrant workers.
Turkmenistan
According to official data, Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 6.3 percent in the first quarter. In the oil and gas sector, the planned indicators were exceeded, and the construction sector was supported by state investments.
The EBRD predicts that the country’s economy will grow by 6.3 percent in 2026 and 2027.
According to the bank, most of Turkmenistan’s gas exports go to the Chinese market, which makes the country sensitive to changes in demand in China.
Earlier, Fitch changed the outlook on Uzbekistan’s rating from “stable” to “positive”. had increased.
