Military analysts conclude that this is a signal that the northern sector is being transferred from surveillance status to potential threat status. And when the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, simultaneously signs the decree on the call-up of reserve officers for 2026, it no longer looks like a separate bureaucratic document, but as part of a wider picture, in the context of the Ukrainian war, Latvian Army Major and National Guard Staff Officer Jānis Slaidiņš emphasized to TV24, commenting on what is happening in Belarus.
Officially, Minsk, of course, presents it as a planned event and claims that the April 17 decree no. 132 refers to reserve officers under the age of 27, who have not served in the army, who are not in the reserve, and Belarusian authorities say that this happens every year. But in politics and war, not only the fact itself is important, but also the context. But the context is that Russia is prolonging the war in Ukraine, it has problems with personnel, it is regrouping and at the same time trying to threaten the Ukrainian army by opening new lines of pressure, said J. Slaidiņš.
According to him, one thing must be understood here – the roads to the border are not built “by appearance”. Artillery positions are not prepared “just in case”. Reserve officers are not drafted just for statistics. All this means infrastructure preparation, a basic command structure and the ability to rapidly deploy forces whenever the political order is given. J. Slide said that this does not mean that a major offensive will now be launched from the territory of Belarus. But it certainly means creating the conditions for blackmail, a show of force, limiting our reserves in the north and, if necessary, provocations or localized actions within the framework of Russia’s plans.
Ukraine’s conclusion is clear – the northern flank cannot be considered secondary. For Belarusians, the “we have nothing to do with it” attitude no longer works. When the government builds roads to the border, prepares artillery positions and recruits reserve officers, it is not preparing for peace, but for the possibility of war. And then everything will depend on whether the Kremlin will again decide to turn Belarus into a full-fledged bridgehead from the back balcony.
The Ukrainian army has warned that in case of aggression, there will be a strike on Belarusian oil refineries and Lukashenko’s residence. “And the Ukrainian army has such opportunities with both drones and cruise missiles,” added J. Slaidiņš.
