On the way to the European (self) defense union

While bombs and rockets are still falling on Iran and drones fly over the region from time to time, when the Strait of Hormuz is once blocked and then unblocked, and marines from Okinawa and the United States are floating somewhere in the Red Sea, waiting for a threatened invasion, Ankara is preparing for this year’s regular, 34th NATO summit (July 6 and 7). The host suggests that the allies reset their alliance relations with the United States of America and prepare for the reduction of their military presence in Europe. The new relations with the US must be arranged by the alliance at the “systemic level”. The summit in Turkey will be an opportunity to try to clarify with the US the questions of what their real geopolitical and geostrategic goals are and what is the role and place of Europe.

A historical disturbance or a shift in the center of gravity?

The question of whether this is the right place and time to discuss the future of NATO with or without the US has two answers. The first builds on the understanding of Trump as a historic disruption that will continue for another three years. It is necessary to spend this period with as few political and structural military-operational consequences as possible until relations return to the old tracks. The bearer of this current is NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with his servility to “grandfather” Trump. Another answer believes that Trump is the result of the US geopolitical center of gravity shifting to Asia, and that Trump’s departure will not significantly change US-European relations. Depending on which answer prevails in Ankara, both collective and individual national security policies will evolve and, consequently, the doctrine, structure, organization and armament of the armies of the old continent will evolve.