On October 22, the Jamaica Observer published an editorial “The Long Hunt for Oil: Is This the Light at the End of the Tunnel?” I had just finished watching a TVJ feature on Black River, almost one year after Hurricane Melissa. Residents described their struggle to rebuild, frustrated and angry by the lack of assistance. So the question of whether oil might be Jamaica’s light at the end of the tunnel struck a nerve.
Whenever I have spoken publicly about oil exploration, I have been warned to stay quiet. I have been told that Jamaica needs oil to develop, meet our needs, and fund climate adaptation. I have been told to consider the case of Guyana.
But do we really understand what we are hoping for when we hope to find oil?
PROMISE OF OIL WEALTH
Guyana’s economic transformation is undeniable. Offshore oil discoveries have generated substantial government revenue, funded several major infrastructure projects, including the new Demerara River Bridge, and supported investment in hospitals, schools, and roads. The International Monetary Fund reported that Guyana’s economy grew by more than 19 per cent in 2025. This, however, is only part of the story. Oil production has also raised serious environmental concerns, including gas flaring, greenhouse gas emissions, the risk of oil spills, and potential harm to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Questions have also been raised about the strength of environmental monitoring and enforcement. Meanwhile, concerns remain about whether the benefits are reaching ordinary Guyanese people equitably, while foreign oil companies earn substantial profits. Guyana shows what oil can generate but also why revenue and economic growth alone are not enough to judge its success.
WHO BEARS THE COST?
Nigeria, Africa’s largest petroleum producer, offers another lesson. The Niger Delta in Nigeria is a vast network of rivers, creeks, mangroves, and wetlands on which millions depend for fishing and farming. It is also a major oil-producing region. Since Shell began exporting oil in 1958, pollution has damaged ecosystems and livelihoods. Amnesty International’s 2009 report documented threats to people’s rights to water, food, and health. A July 2026 follow-up report, based on internal Shell documents, found evidence that the company continued operating ageing, failing infrastructure and exempted its Nigerian subsidiary from some global safety standards. The case highlights how weak enforcement can leave communities bearing the environmental and human costs of oil production.
One objection I have heard is that Jamaica can manage the environmental impacts of oil. While the oil industry can implement strict safety measures to reduce operational risks and environmental impacts, oil extraction and production still carry unavoidable risks of spills, environmental damage, and habitat disruption. The question is not simply whether these impacts can be managed but whether Jamaica has the regulatory capacity, resources, and enforcement mechanisms to prevent environmental harm, hold companies accountable, and ensure that the public is not left to bear the costs when things go wrong.
As in Nigeria, Jamaica has its own history of weak environmental monitoring and enforcement. In 2023, an oil spill in the Rio Cobre in St Catherine was linked to a private company, Trade Winds Citrus Limited. The National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) brought charges under the Wildlife Protection Act, but a subsequent non-disclosure agreement between the regulator and the company accompanied the withdrawal of the court action.
WINDALCO, a bauxite-alumina processing facility in St Catherine, Jamaica, has also faced court cases relating to toxic effluent discharges resulting in fish kills and pollution of the Rio Cobre. Cases involving incidents in 2019, 2021, and 2022 have experienced lengthy administrative and procedural delays in the St Catherine Parish Court. It was only on October 26, 2026, that a guilty verdict was delivered in the case relating to the 2019 incident, resulting in a fine that was entirely inadequate, being the maximum allowed under law at the time of the offence. If environmental cases involving an established industrial operator take years to reach a verdict, can we confidently say that a major oil spill involving a multinational corporation would be handled differently?
RISKS REACH BEYOND THE SHORELINE
In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico killed 11 workers and released approximately 4.9 million barrels of oil over 87 days. The spill caused extensive damage to marine life and habitats. Sixteen years after the disaster, a landmark 2026 study revealed that deep-sea populations in the Gulf plummeted by 60 per cent to 85 per cent following the spill and have shown little to no signs of recovery.
Why then would we welcome oil exploration in Jamaican waters near ecologically sensitive Pedro Bank and the Pedro Cays, which support fisheries, marine biodiversity, and livelihoods? A major spill could devastate marine ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them.
There is also the undeniable connection between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change. Jamaicans do not need to read a scientific report to understand the consequences. Each year, we experience some form of climate-related disaster, whether it is a major hurricane like Hurricane Melissa, a drought caused by El Niño, or a heavy rainfall event. These events result in extended periods without potable water, higher food costs, and damage to roads and other infrastructure, along with the destruction of largely uninsured housing. The most vulnerable are often left with the greatest losses and the fewest resources to recover.
Jamaica has yet to emerge from the impacts of Hurricane Melissa in 2025. A World Weather Attribution study published in November 2025 found that human-induced climate change increased Melissa’s maximum wind speeds by about 7 per cent and its associated extreme rainfall intensity by 16 per cent. The study also found that climate change had made the conditions contributing to such powerful storms about six times more likely.
We cannot measure development only by GDP, government revenue, or the money entering the economy today. We must also consider the health of our ecosystems, the security of our people’s livelihoods, and the opportunities we protect or destroy for future generations.
Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie is an environmental scientist and chief executive officer of the Jamaica Environment Trust.
