The dollar barely rose 1.4% in the year against an inflation of close to 16%, but in June it is back in the news. After months of lethargy, it rose almost 5% in a few weeks, well above what it is estimated that prices advanced in the month. In the economic team there is some relief: one thing is an Argentina with a calm dollar – a necessary condition in any management that aspires to stabilize -, and quite another is one with a backward dollar.. It is possible that, if successful, the country will end up being expensive in dollars, as the libertarian management repeats every time they can, but that does not happen at the beginning of a process in which a large part of the economy is still searching for its new price.
The rise of the last month is, in any case, a reminder that in the exchange market, as in the rest of the economy, history weighs. Although retail demand is far from run-on levels, banks recognize that it always remains active. It doesn’t matter what menu there is for investments in pesos: the dollar is a dish that never runs out.
In companies with greater financial sophistication, the thinking is not very different. In the Central Bank (BCRA), sources from the monetary authority confided, the surprise in recent weeks came from the number of companies that sought to obtain foreign currency to send dividends to their parent companies. The Government opened the stocks only for profits generated in 2025 and, like a Door 12 phenomenon, corporate demand accelerated towards the end. Preliminary estimates from the BCRA show that so far this year, foreign currency has been purchased as profits for the equivalent of almost 90% of what was intended for the same purpose in all of 2016, when the Macri administration released the stocks for companies after more than four years of restrictions.
According to data from the BCRA’s exchange balance for that year, the net transfers of profits and dividends totaled US$4,296 million; 2026 purchases for the same concept would already be around, as of June, just over US$3.8 billion. “In the last two days alone we had operations for dividend payments of about US$150 million,” admitted the operator of a large bank. History, once again, confirms that it knows how to repeat itself. It is not for nothing that Luis Caputo’s team insists that it does not want to release what remains of the stocks until after next year’s presidential election. There is no greater loyalty than that which the Argentine market dedicates to the dollar.
As it is, the retail and corporate combo is completed with the presence of the BCRA, which is also reconstituting reserves—not only to meet the IMF’s demands, but to prepare for a 2027 that, like every election year, promises to be demanding. The banks believe that there is enough supply for the exchange rate to moderate its rate of rise in the coming weeks, although it is already moving in line with inflation. The big question in the market is how comfortable the Government is with the move. The answer, judging by the President’s statements, will be given by the impact on prices.
Milei has an obsession that is public: ironing out inflation. It was one of his campaign promises and it is the achievement that he hopes to offer to his electorate in 2027. With prices slowing in recent months, the economic team has oxygen to let the dollar run and focus on other objectives, including supporting consumption. For this reason, in conversations with banks there is a topic that emerges as constant: how to lower loan interest rates.
The default, which does not stop yielding, is the main obstacle. Not so much between companies as between individuals. “There are millions of cases, of low amounts,” the entities acknowledge. Most public banks came out with refinancing plans. Last week, Banco Nación launched one with a term of up to ten years at UVA plus 10%. But this week the largest bank in the system hopes to approve a more ambitious proposal in the board of directors: it will help those who take their salary account to the bank to cancel debts with other entities. The loans will be up to $100 million, with a fee that may not exceed 25% of the salary, and with a particularity: it will not be the client who takes the money to pay off the delinquent loan, but the BNA who deposits the funds directly in the other entity. Once again, pragmatism trumps the libertarian playbook. Some malicious mind could even read it as the State coming to the rescue of banks that did not know how to lend.
For the BNA, in any case, there is a clear business in capturing clients who collect their salaries at the bank: it is, ultimately, the best client who guarantees a stable monthly flow of deposits. Today there is a fierce battle in the financial system for that asset. Banks like Galicia or Macro offer bonuses of $200,000 or more to those who add their salary accounts. It is not a minor market, although it is also becoming increasingly scarce (a proxy for what is happening with registered employment): in December 2024 there were 10.5 million salary accounts; in March of this year, 9.9 million, according to the BCRA. It is, however, one of the few segments where banks do not compete with fintech companies.
In parallel, The tribulations continue around the Anses Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) and its possible role in boosting mortgage credit. Minister Luis Caputo once again insisted this week among construction businessmen that something could develop as long as the banks also played their part, financing part of the mortgages with new debt issues in the market. But real progress is scarce, despite the dozens of meetings that have taken place in recent months. The objectives of Economy – which manages the fund – are not always aligned with the priorities of Human Capital, on whom Anses depends. Hence, during the time of Pablo Quirno as Secretary of Finance, moving the FGS into the orbit of Economy was considered. The idea is still valid.
The collection, in any way, forces the Government not to dwell too much on ideology. June will close in the red, both in the primary and financial results, making it difficult to meet the semiannual fiscal goal of the agreement with the IMF. A minor offense, for a student who was exceeding the fiscal requirements of the organization. While it continues to accumulate foreign currency for its reserves, although at a slower pace, the Economy expects to present a seamless financial program in the coming weeks.with the necessary financing sources to cover upcoming debt maturities. These are, finally, good times for Minister Caputo and his team.
It turned out, however, that There would be no rush to push the changes in the tax innocence law, which had been agreed upon in the Economy in response to the requests of the accountants. It is true that the adherence to the regime by the questioned Chief of Staff, Manuel Adorni, took away the luster of the initiative. But it is even truer that the fiscal cost of the measure today outweighs the desire to ensure that dollars flow into the economy as soon as possible. And the fiscal anchor is – in Milei’s own words – the “cornerstone” of the Government and a “non-negotiable” principle.
In the economic team there are more certainties than doubts about how to navigate the second semester. The challenges are known and the tools are limited but existing. The problem is not in the numbers, but somewhere else: in politics, where the Government drags tensions that no interest rate or exchange rate band can resolve. Only the President has the answer.
