the 2027 French presidential election they will not be just an internal political appointment for a France. For Andorrathe result will have a direct dimension: the future president of the republic will also become co-prince and will set the tone for the relationship with Paris at a particularly sensitive moment for the principalitywith theassociation agreement with the European Union still at the center of the political debate.
The analysts consulted agree that Andorra must carefully follow the evolution of the French electoral cycle because the country depends, to a large extent, on European stability and the quality of relations with its two neighbours. “Everything that happens in Europe is absolutely critical for Andorrawith or without agreement”, he says Yvan Lara, political scientist from AR+I. according to Larathe principality cannot understand its international position apart from France and Spain“two of the European giants”.
“A French nationalist party with interests in the south of France is not the best news”
The main element of uncertainty is the possibility that the National Regroupment – with Le Pen or Bardella– arrive at theElysium. Lara warns that a far-right presidency could introduce a more nationalist reading of the relationship with Andorra. In this context, issues such as tobacco, smuggling, communications or the cost of certain border infrastructures could acquire a more tense tone, especially in areas of the south of france where the party has an electoral presence.
The political scientist recalls that the speech of “France first” could also be projected onto him principality. “A French nationalist party with interests in the south of France is not the best news for Andorra“, he sums up. Despite admitting that the specific impact is still an unknown, he considers that there are sufficient indications to anticipate a less predictable relationship than the current one.
“Andorra is getting closer to the EU and would meet a Prince who would want to push France away”
Univers Bertrana, professor at the University of Andorraalso sees risks in an eventual victory of the National Regroupingespecially regarding the relationship ofAndorra with the European Union. according to Bertranathe problem would not be so much the formal operation of the co-principality like the loss of a clear ally a Paris. “Andorra is in the process of approaching the European Union and he would meet one co-prince that would like to move the French Republic of Europe”, he points out.
This change could particularly affect the partnership agreement. Macron has expressed during his term a explicit support for Andorra’s integration with Europewhile a Eurosceptic presidency could lower this momentum or, at the very least, generate more political coolness. Bertrana considers that the institutional relationship with France it would continue to exist, but with less complicity in European files.
Víctor Reolid, teacher and journalistintroduces a more nuanced reading. He considers that the National Regrouping has worked in recent years to become institutionalized and that France it has political and administrative counterweights that limit presidential action. That is why it does not necessarily foresee an open conflict with Andorra. However, he admits that French support for the association agreement could be less clear than with a continuation of Macronism.
“Surely if the extreme right wins, a seed will be planted in the heads of Andorrans”
In case the space inherits fromEmmanuel Macron were to maintain the presidency, analysts point to a line of continuity. This would imply institutional stability, with respect to the role of the co-prince and maintaining support for the approach ofAndorra in the European Union. Lara highlights that the current stage has shown “institutional respect” and a clear understanding of the double role of the French president as head of stateState of France and Coprincipe of Andorra.
A victory for the French left, on the other hand, could open other questions. Resolid points out that certain progressive sectors might look Andorra with more suspicion about taxation, border permeability or smuggling. However, remember that previous experiences with socialist presidents, com Francois Mitterranddid not lead to a negative relationship for the principality
The left could also strain fiscal and immigration aspects
The effect of the presidential elections could also be felt in internal Andorran politics. A victory of Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella could symbolically reinforce discourses based on the sovereignty, border control and criticism of elites. Lara believes that this scenario could give impetus to parties like Andorra Endavant, but warns that the same French nationalism that could inspire these speeches could also end up harming Andorran interests. Resolid agrees that a triumph of the extreme right a France could have an indirect political effect on the principality. “Surely if the extreme right wins, a seed will be planted in the heads of Andorrans”, he says. However, he points out that this would not automatically translate into more electoral support, but would depend on the parties’ ability to articulate and communicate the project.
The French political context remains open. Macronism arrives worn out, the left faces difficulties to regroup and the extreme right appears with real options to contest the presidency. But for Andorrathe central question is not just who will win, but what kind of relationship the future will want to maintain co-prince with the principality in one France continuist with the current model or closer to the extremes.
