Due to the occurrence of El Niño, the existing trend of global warming will further increase. Photo: iStock
“Something strange is happening!” Earth is threatened by “Godzilla El Niño”, the possible consequences are terrifying
Due to the occurrence of El Niño, the existing trend of global warming will increase, which could lead to new temperature records.
Last year was the third warmest on record, despite the La Niña climate phenomenon, which usually brings a cooling effect. According to Copernicus, 2025 was only slightly cooler than 2023, and 2024 remains the warmest on record. However, 2026 could break all records. Indeed, climate models point to the development of an extremely strong El Niño phenomenon, which some are already calling “super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño”. This would bring drought to some parts of the world, floods to others, and all together probably the warmest year on record.
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“Current forecasts show that the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm faster than at any time this century. Something unusual is happening,” Adam Scaife of the UK’s National Meteorological Service, the Met Office, explained to New Scientist.
What is El Niño?
It is a natural weather phenomenon, the warm phase of the ENSO oscillation, which peaks at the end of the year. It is associated with surface warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The opposite phenomenon is La Niña (Spanish for “the girl”), when ocean temperatures drop abnormally, lowering global temperatures by about 0.2 degrees Celsius. However, recent La Niña events have not brought significant cooling.
The phenomenon was noticed centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen when the warm waters peaked around Christmas, so they named it “El Niño de Navidad” (the child or little Jesus). The first scientific record of it dates back to 1892.
What does “super El Niño” bring?
A typical El Niño lasts nine to twelve months and raises global temperatures by about 0.2 degrees. It often brings storms and floods to North and South America, the Horn of Africa and China, while Australia, Southeast Asia and the Amazon face drought and heat waves.
If the sea temperature rises by 2 degrees or more above the long-term average, we are talking about a strong or super El Niño. The most recent such case in the 2015/2016 season resulted in record hurricanes, water shortages in Puerto Rico and drought in Ethiopia. The consequences were even worse in 1982/1983, when extreme weather conditions killed more than 2,000 people and caused $13 billion in damage.
Predictions of European scientists
The Croatian Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ) announced that the models of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) foresee the development of a moderate to strong phenomenon at the beginning of summer.
Climatologist dr. Sara Ivasić for morning.hr explains: “El Niño causes air temperatures to rise by shifting convection zones in the Pacific Ocean. This warming builds on the existing trend of global warming. The last El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record and the first year in which the mean annual temperature exceeded the threshold of 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.”
Impact on Europe
While the impact on America and Australia is direct, El Niño affects Europe only indirectly. Research so far shows that a strong El Niño often brings colder and drier weather to northern Europe at the end of winter. In the Mediterranean and in the area of Croatia and Slovenia, we can expect above-average rainy winters during this period. Nevertheless, El Niño is only one factor, and the final result will depend on the cooperation of all components of the climate system.
