So for the observatory of Confartigianato Emilia-Romagna The Region’s economy faces a complex 2026, marked by strong geopolitical uncertainties and a two-speed credit market. According to the latest report fromMPI Observatory of Confartigianato Emilia-Romagnatensions in the Middle East and unstable energy prices threaten to fuel inflation, pushing the ECB towards monetary policies that could slow down the recovery. The Bank of Italy’s estimates confirm this climate of caution: the growth of investments in machinery for the current year has been revised downwards, going from the +1.6% expected at the end of 2025 to a more modest +0.5%.
The credit paradox: low rates, but not for small businesses
The regional analysis highlights a peculiar situation: in December 2025, Emilia-Romagna boasted the lowest bank interest rate (TAE) in Italyequal to 4.43%well below the national average. However, this positive data hides profound disparities. If the manufacturing sector enjoys the best conditions (4.20%), the constructions they face much higher costs (5.36%).
The real critical issue, however, emerges in the dimensional comparison: while medium and large companies obtain financing at 4.5%, the small businesses in Emilia-Romagna pay a rate of 7.6%with a gap of as much as 310 basis points. Despite the ECB’s rate cut in June 2025, the cost of credit in the region remains 168 basis points higher than pre-crisis levels in 2022.
Craftsmanship is suffering, but digital is holding on
The “credit crunch” hits the productive heart of the region hard. While the stock of loans for all businesses returned to slight growth (+0.2%), loans to small businesses continue to decline (-3.7% at the end of 2025). The decline was even more marked for quasi-artisan companieswhich saw a collapse in loans in January 2026 -10.3%. At the provincial level, the strongest tensions are felt at Ferrara (-3.9%) And Bologna (-3.2%)While Modena shows signs of countertrend with a credit increase of 4.6%.
Despite the difficulties in accessing capital, companies do not give up on modernization. 2025 saw a strong push towards digital transition: The 70.7% of regional companies have made investments in this area (+3.9 points compared to 2024). Even among micro and small businesses (MPIs), the share of those investing in digital has risen to 67.6%demonstrating notable resilience and the will to face the challenges of the “twin transition” (green and digital).
Investments: machinery and software at the top of the priorities
In the craft sector (net of services), 32% of companies made investments during 2025. The resources were mainly allocated to the renewal of the machinery fleet (46%), the introduction of innovative technologies (28%) and the purchase of software and computers (26%).
In conclusion, 2026 promises to be a year of resistance for the MPIs of Emilia-Romagna. While on the one hand the region confirms its structural solidity and its vocation for innovation, on the other it remains urgent to address the issue of the cost of credit for the smaller entities, which continue to bear the heaviest financial burden of the monetary tightening.
