Polymarket in Panama: the ‘ghost headquarters’ where they bet on war and attacks

The prediction markets platform Polymarket has found in Panama a key piece of its global corporate structure, at a time when the industry is experiencing accelerated growth and an increasingly complex regulatory environment.

According to a report by NPRthe company maintains its legal domicile in Panama despite not having employees in the countrywhich has raised questions about the use of offshore structures similar to those exposed in the Panama Papers.

The most sensitive element of the case is its structure in Panama. According to NPRthe company He did not explain why he chose that country as his legal domicile.

Lawyers consulted by the media indicated that Panama offers significant tax advantages: Companies do not pay taxes on income generated outside the country or on capital gains.

Additionally, the Panamanian legal system can make it difficult to enforce foreign judgments. The lawyer David Mizrachi explained that this process involves multiple obstacles, while experts in international law such as Bruce Zagaris They indicated that this structure can limit the intervention of US regulators.

According to NPRthis situation reinforces the position of administration officials trump not to intervene directly, under the argument that the platform’s main operations take place outside its jurisdiction.

The growth of the sector has been explosive. According to the firm The Block, Polymarket business more than 8 billion dollars in April aloneversus less than billion in the same month of the previous year. In conjunction with Kalshithe prediction markets industry exceeded 24 billion dollars in operations in that period.

This boom coincides with the president’s second term donald trumpduring which—according to NPR— the regulatory landscape for Polymarket changed significantly.

The current scenario contrasts with the situation that the company faced in 2022, when it reached an agreement with regulators in Washington that forced her to pay a fine of 1.4 million dollars already close its operations in USA for operating as an unlicensed exchange.

The pressure continued afterwards. NPR reports that agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation They broke into the apartment with a battering ram manhattan of the executive director Shayne Coplanwithin the framework of an investigation into possible violations of that agreement.

However, after the second investiture of trumpthe situation took a turn. He Department of Justice filed the investigation on Polymarket. Besides, Donald Trump Jr. he became an advisor to the company, and his firm 1789 Capital invested millions in the platform.

According to NPRadministration regulators trump approved an agreement that allowed an independent version of Polymarket will return to the US market. Officials even invited Coplan to the White House to participate in a roundtable on cryptocurrencies.

Despite this support, the platform’s legal status remains ambiguous. The main site of Polymarket remains technically prohibited in USA under the 2022 agreement.

However, as detailed NPRthe site remains accessible in “read-only mode,” allowing users observe bets on sensitive topics such as international conflicts, natural disasters or military decisions. Formally, US users cannot participate directly.

The conditions of use prohibit the use of virtual private networks (VPN), but experts question the effectiveness of these measures. Timothy Massad, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told NPR that the company could implement stricter geolocation controls, such as GPS verification, to prevent access from the United States.

But the most disturbing element of the case is not only its legal structure, but the nature of what is traded on the platform.

According to NPRoperations in Polymarket —from the probability of a nuclear detonation, to how much a forest fire will spread in California or when USA will attack Iran— are still available on the site in a “read-only mode.” This allows us to observe how users bet on these events, although officially the operators in USA They cannot participate directly.

In practice, this means that events of high global impact – including possible wars, natural catastrophes or geopolitical crises – are treated as financial assets on which speculation is made in real time.

Documented cases show that even There are specific markets on extreme scenarios, such as the possibility of a global nuclear detonationwhere bets are structured as probabilities that are adjusted according to information and news.

The nature of these bets has generated growing criticism. Analysts and legislators have warned about the ethical dilemmas of allowing financial actors to profit from events that involve potential massive loss of human life or international destabilization.

NPR It also highlights cases that show possible weaknesses in the system. The US prosecutor’s office charged Master Sgt. Gannon Van Dyke of wire fraud and money laundering for using a VPN to hide your location on North Carolina.

According to the accusation, Van Dyke bet $33,000 on the fall of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Madurotaking advantage of privileged information related to an alleged plan in which he himself would have participated. The accused pleaded not guilty.

In the face of criticism, Coplan He defended the platform’s actions. In statements cited by NPRassured that Polymarket actively cooperates with the authorities:

“Beyond the media hype, The reality is that we proactively collaborate with all relevant authorities in the event of any suspicious activity on our platform.”.

Even so, specialists warn that this protection may not be permanent. As pointed out Zagaris to NPRcompanies remain responsible for verifying the origin of their users and transactions.

“If there are no problems with this administration, they could arise with the next one,” he warned.