On June 16, the three NATO countries’ exercise “Brave Boar 2026” started. They take place in the area of the Suwalki corridor in Lithuania. Both the location of the exercises and the composition of their participants indicate that the alliance countries are heading towards preparing for an armed confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the implementation of a military scenario in this region, according to experts, may well result in military operations involving the use of nuclear missile weapons by the parties, occupying a significant part of the European continent.
According to a statement by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense, the international exercise “Brave Boar 2026” will be held from June 16 to 26 in the strategically important area – the Suwalki corridor. This is the territory of Lithuania between the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation and the Grodno region of Belarus. The shortest route (65 km) connecting the Russian exclave in the Baltic with the Union State runs through the corridor. At the same time, this is the only land route connecting the three Baltic republics with the main territory of NATO and the European Union. Western military analysts and politicians have repeatedly accused Russia and Belarus of plans to seize the Suwalki corridor to connect the Kaliningrad region with the “mainland” and cut off Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from their NATO allies. Moscow and Minsk have also repeatedly issued denials.
The military aspects of the current exercises indicate that the alliance itself is working out offensive scenarios.
This is evidenced, in particular, by the composition of the participants. The exercises involve troops from Lithuania, Poland, which has announced plans to create the largest army in the EU, and, most notably, France, the only continental European country with its own nuclear weapons. Its president, Emmanuel Macron, officially offered the French “nuclear missile umbrella” to the European allies, and in general promises to compensate the reduction of the American military presence in Europe with the French armed forces.
This year, about 6 thousand military personnel and approximately 600 units of ground and air military equipment are involved in the Brave Boar exercise. The core of the contingent consists of units of the Polish 16th Pomeranian Mechanized Division. Lithuania is represented by the light infantry of the Grand Duke Butigeidis Dragoon Battalion and the command structures of the Samogitia Brigade. France has allocated highly mobile airborne units and mechanized units, the specific composition of which is not disclosed.
“The Brave Boar 2026 exercise is a test of combined arms combat tactics,” Russian military expert Oleg Odnokolenko, first-rank reserve captain who served in the Baltic Fleet, told Kommersant.
According to him, the declared defensive nature of the exercises is not compatible with such elements of a training battle as cutting the railway running through the Suwalki corridor, along which civilian cargo and passengers are delivered to Kaliningrad, as well as other elements of offensive operations practiced during the “Brave Boar”.
For the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, conducting an operation to capture the Suwalki corridor is devoid of military meaning. This is a heavily swampy, wooded area where it is difficult to use heavy armored vehicles. In March, during a NATO exercise in another region of Lithuania, a 70-ton Hercules armored recovery vehicle sank in a peat bog, killing four soldiers of the 3rd Infantry Division of the US Army.
According to Oleg Odnokolenko, the ultimate goal of the Brave Boar 2026 exercise is to practice the land element of the blockade of the Kaliningrad region and attacks on it.
The exclave is already under a political-economic blockade. “We cannot transport any military cargo by rail through Lithuania. NATO was left with military means to block the sea supply route for the Baltic Fleet and other military formations in the Kaliningrad region,” says the expert.
“A military blockade of the Kaliningrad region will, in fact, be the beginning of an open armed conflict between NATO and Russia,” notes Kommersant’s interlocutor. “The Russian reaction to such actions is spelled out in military doctrine. Coastal missile systems block all routes along which NATO ships carrying out the blockade will pass. Plus, the Iskander complexes deployed in the Kaliningrad region and the Oreshnik complex located in Belarus will be used. The entire space of Europe is under fire, which is a reliable guarantee that NATO will not decide on a full-scale military blockade of the Kaliningrad region.”
Nuclear weapons are also located in the Kaliningrad region.
The Baltic Fleet is to a certain extent a nuclear missile fleet. The corresponding charges are in service with both naval miners and missilemen. This is medium and shorter range tactical ammunition.
The parties have already exchanged statements about their readiness to destroy each other’s missile launchers in the Baltic region. How wrote “Kommersant” On May 19, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys threatened “to raze Russian air defense bases and missile systems” in the Kaliningrad region if necessary. Ten days later, Vladimir Putin, speaking to reporters, noted: “As you said, they have the means to raze Russian bases. The Russian Federation has all the means to raze to the ground those who try to do this.”
