MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump risks losing control of his party amid differences over the Iran war, and NATO begins its BALTOPS 2026 naval exercise in the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, Poland is pushing for a permanent US military base. These stories topped Friday’s headlines in Russia.
Media: Trump and his GOP clash over Iran war
The House of Representatives voted against US President Donald Trump’s continued war in Iran. The resolution was passed only because some in the president’s Republican party supported it. The same might happen at the Senate vote as Trump is facing an open rebellion from part of GOP members. While it is too early to predict that the Republicans will soon turn away from their president, rather American society is increasingly dissatisfied with the Iran war and Trump’s policies which his party members cannot but ignore with six months until the congressional midterms.
As many as 215 Congressmen, including four Republicans, voted for the resolution, a fourth such document endorsed at the House, with 208 votes against. Trump hit back at legislators who voted to rebuke him in the midst of the Iran war, calling them “unpatriotic” on his Truth Social platform.
Now that proponents of halting the war have demonstrated their abilities at both houses, there is a likelihood that Congress and the Senate will adopt one of the two latest resolutions – either May’s or June’s. Trump will then have to veto it, publicly going against both lawmakers and US public opinion, which is against the war. The American president also suffered another blow from his party members as six Republicans supported the Democrats’ resolution on continued support to Ukraine in a House vote, a document the White House has opposed.
Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a comment to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that there is no such thing as a “party of peace” or a “party of war” in Congress. There are supporters of confrontation with Iran, and they still have an upper hand in the Republican Party, and there are supporters of confrontation with Russia, the bulk of them being Democrats. Therefore, the two resolutions are communicating vessels, the expert said: “It can be said that the Democrats are hinting that they will push for assistance to Ukraine if they win the November election, maybe to the detriment of funding for the Middle East conflict.”
Pavel Koshkin, an expert in American studies, called the House vote to halt the Iran war a symbolic victory for Trump’s opponents. The very fact that Congressmen approved this resolution on a fourth attempt indicates a growing rift in the Republican camp around Trump’s policies, he said. “The president has so far managed to bridge this gap. But the longer the conflict with Tehran lasts, the more these cracks will show,” Koshkin told Vedomosti.
Scenarios that NATO forces will simulate in the course of the BALTOPS 2026 naval maneuvers will include imposing a blockade on the Kaliningrad Region, launching strikes on Russian ground-based targets, and seizing civilian vessels, experts interviewed by Izvestia say. This year’s exercise involves twice fewer participants than last year’s drills because a substantial part of the allied forces is taking part in the Middle East campaign. However, the exercise remains the region’s largest, with Russia’s Baltic Fleet closely watching NATO’s actions.
The media suggested the exercise may involve fewer participants because part of the allied forces have been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz and the Arctic. Held since the early 1970s, BALTOPS 2026 is part of the Arctic Sentry program and aims to enhance interoperability between the armies of the bloc’s allies and its partners. According to NATO’s official announcement, the exercise will focus on anti-submarine warfare, amphibious operations, and mine countermeasures.
However, experts argue that its real tasks may go beyond the stated goals and have something to do with creating additional threats to Russia, including the simulation of a naval blockade of the country’s Baltic exclave.
Statements are increasingly frequent in the West about limiting Russia’s capabilities in the Baltic and actually turn the Baltic Sea into an internal water area of NATO, Vadim Kozyulin, a chief researcher at the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia. “They will likely practice isolating Russia, imposing a blockade, and attacking land-based targets,” he said. According to the expert, actions to intercept tankers and civilian vessels traveling from Russian ports may be practiced as well.
Military expert Boris Dzhereliyevsky agrees that NATO’s forces will practice similar scenarios. The alliance’s drills also represent an attempt to exert pressure, he added. “The situation in the region is quite challenging. We can see that preparations – almost without disguise – for a war against our country are underway, and these goals have been announced. And they are likely considering the Baltic option first of all. The scenario the West is constantly discussing is an attempt to storm the Kaliningrad region,” Dzhereliyevsky said. According to him, similar maneuvers pose additional risks because they can be used to disguise larger-scale activities.
The BALTOPS naval exercise is unfriendly and is clearly targeted against Russia, as the alliance is trying to show who reigns in the Baltic Sea, Vice Admiral Alexander Brazhnik, former First Deputy Commander of the Baltic Fleet, told Izvestia. “Our military is using this exercise to study the tactics and strategy of a potential enemy,” he explained.
Poland has asked the United States to establish a permanent military base on its soil, according to a proposal submitted to US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Despite reports that the Americans may soon reduce their military presence in Europe, the Polish authorities appear to hope to strengthen defense ties with the United States. Poland believes that it is the United States, not Washington’s European allies, that can reliably guarantee the country’s security amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
While the United States and Poland have yet to reach specific agreements, Warsaw seems to estimate the probability of hosting a permanent US military base as high. Not without reason, Trump described Poland as a “model ally” against the backdrop of souring relations with other European nations.
Poland currently hosts 10,000 US troops, according to PAP news agency. Key American military infrastructure facilities are located in Poznan, Powidz, and Redzikowo, and this is not Poland’s first attempt to host a permanent US military base.
Maria Pavlova, a senior researcher at the Baltic Sea Region Integrated Research Group of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the Poles have promoted the idea for more than a decade already as Warsaw proposed a US Fort Trump military base in Trump’s first presidency in 2018, but the initiative failed over what Reuters said in 2020, citing its own sources, was Poland’s reluctance to earmark enough funding.
“Poland is a key US partner in the region already, and the Poles expect that a permanent US base will strengthen this status even more, symbolically reaffirm the country’s special role in the American foreign policy strategy, improve the interoperability of the two countries’ militaries, and reduce the response time in crisis situations. They have a broader hope that the United States will protect Poland, if the need arises,” Pavlova concluded.
Day 2 of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Thursday was rich in events and people somehow affiliated with the United States, with two sessions being held and several guests with US citizenship taking part. Ahead of what is called the Russian Davos, the media looked forward to the arrival of an official delegation led by Rodney Cook, who serves as chair of the Commission of Fine Arts, the first US official to visit in years. The first and foremost session on America was devoted to cultural ties between Moscow and Washington.
As a speaker, Cook refrained from voicing specific proposals or initiatives to deepen cultural ties between Russia and the United States, concluding his speech by saying that everything could be possible as soon as there is peace. In other words, he indirectly confirmed that the bilateral dialogue between Moscow and Washington has not been smooth enough without resolving the Ukraine conflict.
Cook’s arrival to SPIEF looks like a private initiative or a tribute from a person with a personal interest in Russian culture, according to Vadim Kozlov, head of the Domestic Politics Research Department at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “I’d compare it to Russian visits by Elon Musk’s father, Errol,” the expert specified.
After all, diplomatic breakthroughs are finalized behind closed doors, not at open venues, so Cook’s visit is a separate part of US-Russian cooperation that is not directly linked to any prospects of talks to stabilize bilateral dialogue or resolve the Ukraine conflict, Vladimir Pavlov, a researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told Vedomosti.
Over the past month, liquified petroleum gas (LPG), used as a motor fuel and a raw material in the petrochemical industry, increased by 23.6% on the exchange. The increase comes amid rising exports which saw an almost 30% rise year-on-year in January-April. Industry representatives say the domestic market has remained in surplus, with LPG prices rising as part of market players attempting to build an extra stockpile for the summer period.
LPG is used not only as a motor fuel and a raw material for the petrochemical industry but also the utilities sector, Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, told Izvestia.
According to Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at Implementa, the rise in LPG prices in early June was primarily due to an improvement in the export economy amid high global prices as well as a seasonal increase in domestic demand. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant volume of global LPG supplies comes has put additional pressure on the market, he added. “The Hormuz premium in Asian LPG prices has been the main external driver: uncertainty around supplies from the Middle East has kept up high prices for propane and butane in Asia, making the eastern direction more attractive for Russian suppliers,” Timonin specified.
How the market situation develops next will mostly depend on whether the Hormuz premium in external prices stays for long, Timonin continued. “If risks for LPG supplies from the Middle East remain, Asian prices will stay high, and Russia will continue to export LPG to China and Central Asia,” he predicted.
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