The share of married women using a contraceptive increased from 40% to 70% between the 1990s and 2020.
Study : According to a recent study by the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), Morocco is experiencing a continuous and progressive decline in fertility, which leads to a historically low synthetic index of 1.97 children per woman in 2024. This decline is not explained by later marriage but rather the increasing use of contraception.
The National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) has published a study on fertility in the Maghreb. This study carried out by Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Ibtihel Bouchoucha and Soumaya Abdellatif reveals that after having experienced one of the fastest fertility transitions in the world, the Maghreb is now entering a new phase with low fertility which seems to be lastingly established. Since the 2000s, Morocco has been characterized by a continuous and progressive decline in fertility, which leads to a historically low synthetic index of 1.97 children per woman in 2024. The 2014-2024 decade marks a new turning point. Tunisian fertility is falling again at a sustained rate and its index reaches a historically low level of 1.58 children per woman in 2023 and would even reach 1.53 in 2024. For its part, Morocco falls below the replacement threshold of 2.1 in 2024, while Algeria begins a decline since 2017. The three countries are now moving towards low fertility levels (Algeria) or very low (Morocco and Tunisia).
The authors point out that although fertility levels are currently falling in the three Maghreb countries, fertility calendars differ significantly. In Morocco, the continued decline in fertility is not accompanied by a notable change in the calendar: the fertility peak remains concentrated in the 25-29 year old group. That said, the reduction involves a reduction in the intensity of births for mothers aged 30-34 first, then 25-29. The average age at motherhood remains stable (between 30.3 and 30.6 years). According to the authors, these developments are due to related fertility factors – marriage and contraception – which are themselves strongly linked to changes in the socio-economic context. In Morocco, fertility is falling despite women entering marriage relatively early. Census data show that the average age of women at first marriage is falling, from 26.3 to 24.6 years between 2004 and 2024, while that of men continues to increase, from 31.2 to 32.4 years over the same period. This early female marriage has not slowed the decline in fertility, and underlines the central role of other factors, foremost among which is contraception.
Growing use of contraception
Morocco stands out for its increasing use of contraception. The share of married women using a contraceptive increased from 40% to 70% between the 1990s and 2020. We also note an increasing use of modern methods – pill, IUD, injectable contraceptive implant and sterilization – as opposed to traditional methods such as periodic abstinence. All these demographic changes are part of a socio-economic context marked by the lengthening of school careers and late professional integration of young adults, particularly women. It is important to note that difficulties in entering the labor market, then in reconciling professional and family life, can thus delay marriage and maternity plans and contribute to the postponement of births. Beyond these economic and institutional constraints, recent transformations in fertility also reflect an evolution in family norms. Today, parenting tends to become a more demanding project. Parents now attach greater importance to the academic success, well-being and living conditions of their children.
Demographic aging
Unlike Tunisia, aging remains more moderate in Algeria (10.5% aged 60 and over in 2023) and Morocco (13.8% in 2024), but it will accelerate in the coming years with the continued decline in fertility. The continuation of the rapid decline in fertility will gradually reduce the natural balance. As smaller generations reach reproductive ages, the annual number of births will tend to decrease mechanically, even independently of individual behavior. If the natural balance becomes negative, the population will then only be able to grow at the cost of a positive migratory balance. That said, unlike many European countries where migratory flows still help to offset the natural balance, the Maghreb is historically marked by a negative migratory balance. The recent decline in fertility in the Maghreb is clear and sometimes very rapid. It is part of lasting changes in behavior with births being more postponed, spaced out and limited. If the trajectories differ depending on the country, these transformations converge towards a probable settling of fertility at lastingly low levels, without a new rebound comparable to those observed in the past being, at this stage, perceptible.
