The United States votes this Tuesday in some midterm elections that donald trump turned into a referendum on his presidency: he asked his followers to vote as if his name appeared on the ballot, a bet that, if lost, he will hardly be able to attribute to candidates who campaigned under his shadow.
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The 435 seats of the House of Representatives35 of Senate and 36 governorships, and what is at stake is how much margin voters will grant the president in the last two years of his second term.
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Today, the United States goes to the polls. Photo:
The polls, which have previously underestimated the reception of Donald Trump, They are adverse to the White House.
The survey of Reuters/Ipsosconcluded on October 26, puts Trump’s approval at 32 percent and gives Democrats a nine-point lead among likely voters, 53 to 44 percent.
Decision Desk HQ It predicts a 241-194 in the House and a 52-48 in the Senate in favor of the opposition, although these are probabilities and not results: a consistent advantage justifies talking about favoritism, but not about an irreversible wave.
Senate: how many seats do Democrats need
Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Fort Myers, Florida Photo:AFP
The accounts are more demanding in the upper house. The Republicans have 53 of 100 seats, so the Democrats must add four to reach 51, since a tie at 50 would be resolved by the vice president’s vote, J.D. Vance.
This is what it indicates Daniel Zovattodirector and editor of Radar Latam 360. Polls show a tight Democratic lead in five states, some traditionally conservative, such as Texas, North Carolina either Kansas.
Record early voting and the weight of independents
Participation points to a record. According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, the early vote It exceeded 53.6 million votes at noon on Sunday, compared to 45.9 million in 2022, although the affiliation of those who have already voted does not reveal who they voted for.
The independent voters They can tip the balance: Pew Research Center points out that 10 percent of the electorate has not committed to any party, the highest proportion of undecided people in almost a decade.
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Trump, who gave his last message before the elections this Monday next to the reflecting pool of the Lincoln Memorialsaid that these elections are “the most important in memory.”
“This is the last day before the elections midterm, midterm elections most importantI think, of our life“Trump said before reporters and guests.
The president had already anticipated how he would respond to an opposition Congress. “I will become Mr. Veto.”he said in a podcast New York Postconvinced that after one or two months the Democrats will go to negotiate.
Congress can only overcome a veto with two-thirds of both chambers, a majority that would be almost unattainable for the opposition.
In the same interview he opened the door to pardon alliesincluding Elon Musk, who has contributed almost half a billion dollars to Republican candidates: “I wouldn’t even think about it. I would do it.”
What’s next after the midterm elections
Faced with this scenario, the Democrats would seek to open research against the president, his government and his family, and block appointments and funding of the war with Iran.
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Still, a defeat could weaken Trump without dismantling Trumpism, and the evening could be long: Zovatto warns that the scrutiny can be delayed without being fraudulent, and that it will be necessary to monitor whether the president distinguishes claims supported by evidence from a general delegitimization of suffrage.
*With information from AFP
