Can United States President Donald Trump restrain not only his own administration, but also America’s closest ally, Israel, and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from undermining the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed with Iran? This question now lies at the centre of whether the region can finally move away from prolonged conflict involving the United States, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A cautionary note to Netanyahu has come from US Vice President J.D. Vance, who underscored the uniqueness of Washington’s support. “Donald J. Trump is the only head of state… sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment,” he noted, warning that any move to undermine the MOU risks alienating Israel’s most powerful ally. His advice was blunt: undermining such an agreement could prove strategically unwise at a time of increasing global isolation.
Yet Netanyahu has taken a firm stance. His government has declared that it is not bound by the MOU between the US and Iran. At the same time, Israeli forces have continued operations in southern Lebanon, reportedly occupying some 600 square kilometres. Iran has warned that continued Israeli action against Lebanon would violate the agreement, raising the risk of renewed escalation.
This aligns with concerns among international analysts who argue that Netanyahu’s past approach suggests a willingness to act unilaterally, even amid peace efforts. They caution that further conflict could be framed as defensive, with blame placed on Iran and Lebanon, thereby justifying continued military action.
The stakes surrounding the MOU are considerable. The agreement reportedly provides a 60-day window for the US and Iran to negotiate a comprehensive settlement. Its key elements include Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an immediate cessation of hostilities and the removal of US sanctions on Iranian oil. It also envisions a US$300 billion reconstruction effort for war-affected areas.
For President Trump, the incentive to secure success is significant. He has sought to end a series of costly conflicts involving the US and Israel—wars estimated at roughly US$130 billion, including some US$21 billion in military assistance to Israel.
Beyond those direct costs lies a broader global impact. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes—has repeatedly disrupted trade, contributing to energy price volatility and economic uncertainty worldwide.
At home, the political consequences have also been felt. Market instability linked to Middle Eastern tensions has contributed to stock market fluctuations, with knock-on effects for investor confidence and presidential approval ratings.
In this context, President Trump faces converging geopolitical and domestic pressures. The success or failure of the MOU will not only shape the prospects for peace in the Middle East but will also influence his administration’s legacy.
Ultimately, much hinges on the actions of Prime Minister Netanyahu. Whether he aligns with the diplomatic effort or pursues a more confrontational course may well determine whether this fragile opening for peace holds—or collapses into renewed conflict.
