He exchange market in Colombia consolidated a marked downward trend during the day this Friday, June 12.
He dollar closed the session with a average price of 3,485.37 pesoslocated in minimum levels that were not registered since 2021.
When evaluating daily behavior, the average price was positioned 28.17 pesos below the Representative Market Rate (TRM) official stipulated for the day, which was located in 3,513.54 pesos.
The intraday session recorded a maximum trading price of 3,511.00 pesos and a minimum that fell to 3,466.00 pesos.
This strong correction is the continuation of a bearish path which has become evident when comparing the evolution of the official TRM from end of May and first weeks of June.
While on May 31 and June 1 the exchange rate was sustained strictly in the 3,678.15 pesosby June 2 experienced a first break of consideration to fall to 3,560.24 pesos.
After remaining in a stable channel that oscillated between 3,562.00 and 3,588.09 pesos during the first week of June, the bearish pressures intensified In recent days: the TRM went from 3,581.46 pesos on June 10, to 3,567.11 pesos on June 11, finally breaking the barrier of 3,500 pesos in the projections of the following days, where they fixed official rates of 3,513.54 pesos and a later indicator of 3,475.72 pesos for subsequent days.
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The global de-escalation factors and the risk appetite
The behavior of the local currency coincides with a drastic change in the international financial landscape. According to reports from the firm Credicorp Capital, the easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East changed investors’ preference for traditional safe haven assets, weakening the global position of the greenback. Rumors about an imminent diplomatic consensus between the Washington and Tehran administrations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, planned for the G7 summit, caused a 1.04% decline in the international price of Brent oilwhich was indexed at $88.22 per barrel.
Added to this scenario was the corporate public offering success in global markets, such as SpaceX IPO for $75 billionwhich substantially raised the external stock market indices and increased risk appetite in emerging economies. Alex Kuptsikevich, principal market analyst at FxPro, highlighted the reasons for this withdrawal of dollar buyers by explaining that:
“Rumors of a imminent peace deal in the middle east they did fall dollar index. (…) This combination of fall in North Sea crude oil and rise in stock indices is creating a tailwind for the EURUSD.”
Likewise, at the macroeconomic level, the central bank monetary policy decisions how the European Central Bank (ECB) influenced the global distribution of capital flowsdespite the fact that doubts persist about the continuity of their rate tightening cycles due to fears of stagflation in the eurozone.
Today the medium-term fiscal range will be published. Photo:iStock
Will the trend continue? The experts’ expectations and the Fiscal Framework
In it purely local planethe attention of banking institutions and exchange operators focused on the fiscal projections of the National Government.
The Ministry of Finance is preparing to publish the Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworka technical planning instrument in which the money tables wait for a Rigorous update of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goalsthe fiscal deficit ceilings and the real financing needs internal and external.
Analysts estimate that, if the figures in the document convey certainty about compliance with the fiscal rulethe confidence of foreign portfolios could stabilize the currency rate in limited ranges.
At the same time, the local equity market reacted positively on par with the peso revaluation.
He MSCI COLCAP index of the Colombian Stock Exchange reflected bullish dynamics when registering a increase in the middle of the day of 1.79 percentconsolidating at closing in positive variations.
Highly weighted titles such as Davivienda’s preferred shares rose 9.85 percent up to 29,660.00 pesos; Miners increased by 6.31 percent at a price of 15,500.00 pesos; and ISA rose 5.78 percent priced at 31,500.00 pesos.
For its part, the state Ecopetrol recorded an advance of 1.41 percent trading at 2,875.00 pesos, while the devaluations were marked by Cibest Group with a decline of 2.83 percent at a price of 82,500.00 pesos and the preferential of Cementos Argos that decreased by 1.70 percent closing at 11,580.00 pesos.
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