In times of euphoria, one is quickly seen as a spoilsport if one is reminded of the risks that such euphoria brings with it. And if you do that on days when the recent euphoria about AI stocks is now also accompanied by the enthusiasm about the space company’s gigantic IPO SpaceX is accompanied, you make yourself doubly unpopular. Nevertheless, we want to stick with those who urge caution, especially since prominent names have now joined the circle of warnings.
In view of the fact that the US stock exchanges reached a new record high last week, the warning is now being issued Bank of America (BofA) caution. The team led by bank strategist Savita Subramanian is increasingly seeing signs of an impending bear market. Specifically, 70 percent of the classic bear market warning signals would light up – a level that has historically often been reached at market peaks, the news agency writes Bloomberg. In the US and world’s most important leading index, the S&P 500, highly valued stocks are outpacing cheaper stocks.
Within the tech sector, the difference between the best and worst 20 percent of stocks is greater than it has been since February 2000, said Subramanian. BofA therefore advises: If you have profits in your portfolio, you should think about taking some of them with you.
The Citigroup for its part, the risks remain in the US technology index Nasdaq 100 for high. The market remains vulnerable to downward movements. Tilmann Galler, capital market strategist, analyzes something more metaphorically JP Morgan Asset management, the situation: Just as people look forward to the favorites at the World Cup, AI stocks, especially hardware and semiconductor stocks, have been in focus on the stock market since the beginning of the year. But “a strong preliminary round is not enough for the title. What is crucial is whether the favorites can confirm their performance under pressure.” This means: It will only have to be seen in 2026 and 2027 whether the directly attributable AI sales can keep up with the investments in the sector.
The concentration risk is increasing for investors, says Galler: In the S&P 500, technology already has an index weight of a high 39 percent. In addition, a large part of the performance is due to just a few mega-caps. Global stock indices are also heavily influenced by US stocks. “This helps in upward phases, but increases vulnerability if the market leaders disappoint,” explains Galler. He advises diversification within the AI sector and in general. Because: “As in football, a single star rarely wins the tournament alone.”
One that can continue to win is the Finnish team Nokia (ISIN: FI0009000681). When we were in ours at the beginning of May new online column about insider purchases pointed out that two executives bought shares for over one million euros, the price was 9.1 euros. Now it is 12.9 euros. And now the bank JP Morgan has raised the price target from twelve to 18 euros (an upside potential of 40 percent) and left the vote “Overweight”: Thanks to new customers among the large cloud companies (hyperscalers) or specialized cloud companies (neoscalers), the provider of network technology is moving into the next gear in terms of growth.
Rolls-Royce (ISIN: GB00B63H8491) plays in another world. The engine manufacturer shines with its defensive qualities and is more resilient in civil aviation even in times of weaker flight activity because it is more represented in wide-body aircraft with a more stable capacity, writes the bank Berenberg. She raised the price target for the 1,308 pence share from 1,270 to 1,430 pence and the investment rating from “hold” to “buy”. The RBC bank left the price target at 1,600 pence just over a week ago.
Yes, and at On Holding (ISIN: CH1134540470), the innovative Swiss sporting goods manufacturer well known to our readers, the year-long downward trend that followed a brilliant high could perhaps soon be over. The analysis firm Bernstein has confirmed the price target of $70 for the $38.58 share and says “Outperform”. A price potential of over 80 percent. Most other analysts don’t see that much. But of the 31 experts listed by the Bloomberg news agency, 27 recommend buying and only two recommend holding or selling. Their average price target is $54.13, which gives at least 40 percent upside potential.
The discussion of securities and investments on this site does not replace professional advice and should not be viewed as a purchase recommendation. “Die Presse” assumes no liability for future price developments.
eduard.steiner@diepresse.obfuscationcom
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