According to Economy Online, economic analyst Sadegh Al-Husseini said at the business in crisis conference held in collaboration with Economy Online and the National Entrepreneurship Organization of Iran: If we want to examine the logic of cost and benefit, did America and Israel have a logical benefit to attack Iran or not? We do not reach the result.
He added: “As a matter of fact, neither America nor Israel achieved their initial goals in the war, but it brought costs to both sides.”
Al-Hosseini continued: In a simple analysis, it can be said that the data that the decision-making body in America had to decide on was not correct. The confusion in analyzing and expressing their goals is a manifestation of this fact that they have no accurate plan of what happened and what is to come because their information was wrong.
This economist stated: If this happened in Iran, it would be acceptable, but in the United States, with the existence of 17-18 parallel intelligence agencies, it is a very strange thing.
He clarified: an event that no one predicted was that Trump is one step away from losing the Senate, which is determined by losing Alaska, so this war cannot be described and explained from a logical point of view.
Al-Hosseini added: In the last 2,500 years, we had 5 wars in which the country against us had a GDP more than 15 times that of ours, and we lost land, but in this war, when Iran’s GDP is one-seventh of Iran, we did not lose any land.
He continued: Trump should end the war sooner than this, but he continued because the hegemon of the world should not be defeated.
Al-Hosseini emphasized: We have gone through very difficult days, but we will have much more difficult days ahead. Under no circumstances will the internal political atmosphere of the country after the country be the same as before, and the people who fought will take over the management of the country.
He clarified: 25 million people work in Iran according to the definition of ilo, of this number, 17 million do not actually create much added value, 9 million work part-time, 4 million have incomplete jobs, and 4.5 million have government jobs.
Al-Hosseini continued: Small businesses have no resilience in a crisis. The concept of resilience is meaningless for small businesses; Our biggest crisis is that at the bottom 1.5 million and in the pessimistic scenario 4.5 million people will be out of work, a large part of this number will come from people who were previously working in small businesses.
He clarified: Iran’s total gas production was 800 million cubic meters, of which 230 million cubic meters were lost in the war, 50 million of which have returned, and 180 million of which need between one and two years to restore capacity.
This economic analyst continued: Therefore, in the cold season, we have to shut down many industries and even cut off household gas, 110 million cubic meters of diesel was produced before the war, which has reached 80 million. Some may say that we have 30 million meters of diesel smuggling and we have to stop it, I firmly say that smuggling will end only when the price of diesel in Iran and Pakistan becomes equal.
He announced: 118 million liters of gasoline were produced, which reached 100 million. Last year, gasoline consumption was 135 million liters per day, which will reach 147 million liters in the new year, so there is a shortage of 47 million liters, which is equal to 4.5 billion dollars.
Al-Hosseini continued: “The Islamic Republic has no choice but to liberate, it has no price. I said earlier that a major crisis is needed for fundamental reform in Iran. For 47 years, order has ruled the economy, and now it is the only way to liberalize.”
He stated: If energy reforms are not carried out in Iran this year, we will definitely have triple-digit inflation for the first time. The reason for this will be Iran’s trade deficit this year, which will be about 23 billion dollars.
Al-Hosseini said: “We will not do anything until we become poor, because the dominant ruling coalition will never give up its advantages unless it becomes poor. We are definitely poor in the field of energy, and the only way is to liberate the energy rate. The trade deficit is 23 billion dollars, which means the exchange rate is 4 times compared to today and inflation is 160%.”
He continued: All these things ultimately have an impact on poverty. In the 90s, 11 million new poor (a person whose father was not poor and is poor himself) were created. The new poor blames the government, entrepreneurs, government employees, etc. and says why.
You are not poor and I am, the new poor will reach 15 million by the end of 1405.
Al-Hosseini also clarified: Our cumulative growth in the last 15 years has been 20%, while Iran’s need for growth that can fill the gap between Iran and Turkey is 120% in 15 years and not 20%.
He said: History shows us that there is an economic cycle every 35 years. We are currently at a turning point that is the beginning of new developments.
Al-Hosseini said: “The fact that we are saying that the current critical period means that there is still an opportunity, development does not come out of the economy, but comes out of politics, and the question is whether the ruling coalition will make reforms after the war or not?”
