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    Home EUROPE Portugal

    Iran. 800 million euros in sure bets on the ceasefire raise suspicions again

    The Analyst by The Analyst
    May 6, 2026
    in Portugal
    Iran. 800 million euros in sure bets on the ceasefire raise suspicions again


    Continue to emerge controversies about possible insider trading linked to events of the war between the USA, Israel and Iran, in the Middle East. The most recent case is linked to the ceasefire and involves more than 800 million euros in bets.

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    At stake are events such as the initial attacks by US forces, on February 28, or the fall of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, then leader of Iran.

    It should be noted that sites like Polymarket allow you to bet on themes from the most varied areas, from politics to economics, from sport to cinema.

    Timing perfect

    Suspicions of insider trading fell on several users of that site and traders of oil futures contracts in recent weeks and even months. In any case, nothing has been proven as a crime, at least to date.

    According to The Guardian, the most recent case took place on April 7. Donald Trump announced a ceasefire shortly after they entered bets on falling oil prices – in line with what would happen – which totaled 950 million dollars (807 million euros, at current exchange rates).

    At least 50 bets were involved. User names are public, but it is not known for sure who they are or if they have any connection to decision-making regarding war.



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