Donald Trump authorizes Ukraine to manufacture the Patriot: how Zelensky’s plan can change the war with Russia | NATO

“One of the things we are going to talk about is that we are going to give them a license to manufacture Patriots. Not bad, right? That way they won’t be able to complain that we don’t give them enough.”Trump told Zelensky at the NATO summit in Ankara.

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He Patriotmanufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martinis the main surface-to-air defense system of the United States and It is used to shoot down ballistic missiles.

“We have not yet informed the company, but it will be fixed,” added the US president.

Zelensky nodded when Trump asked him if he considered this decision positive.

“It is a defensive weapon and I like it more than an offensive weapon”said trumpwho later added that very few countries would be able to produce Patriot systems and was convinced that Ukraine would learn to do it “very quickly.”

For decades it has been widely used by the United States and its allies, especially in the Persian Gulf.

Currently, Ukraine uses the Patriot as its main defense component In the context of the war started by Russia in 2022.

However, the intensive use of Patriot during the war of the United States and Israel against Iranwhich began on February 28, has depleted the reserves of interceptor missiles, so their delivery to Ukraine has been decreasing.

Reserves under pressure: The war in Iran has consumed about a third of the Patriot interceptor stockpile and Gulf countries have fired more than 1,100 such missiles.

Insufficient production: Lockheed Martin manufactures around 600 Patriot interceptors a year, a figure considered insufficient to meet global demand. The company is looking to more than triple that capacity.

According to the British newspaper The Guardian, Each Patriot battery, made up of multiple elements, costs around $1 billion.. While each interceptor missile costs between 3 and 4.2 million dollars.

On Monday, after the latest massive airstrike by Russia against Ukrainein which Moscow fired 68 missiles and 351 drones, Zelensky reiterated his request to Trump to give him the necessary licenses for kyiv to manufacture Patriot systems with its European partners. and the missiles PAC-3 interceptors which they use as ammunition.

Ukraine receives most of the missiles PAC-3 which are supplied periodically thanks to financial contributions from Europe, which allow the available units to be purchased from the US.

Upon his return to the White House in January 2025, Trump cut off most free weapons supplies to Ukraine.

Although there is no official data, it is estimated that Ukraine has received about 10 Patriot batteries from different Western allies such as the United States, Germany, the Netherlands and Romania.

According to Ukrainian officials cited by The New York Times, since the beginning of the Russian invasion Ukraine has received approximately 600 Patriot interceptor missiles. Most of it would have been contributed by European countries with authorization from the United States. It is not known how many are left in their warehouses.

The Russian strategy to hit Ukraine

He Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in one of his most recent analyzes that Russia is adapting its airstrike campaign to exploit the growing shortage of Patriot interceptors in Ukraineconsidered the only ones capable of reliably shooting down ballistic missiles like the Iskander, S-400, Zirkon and Onyx.

The study center analyzed the massive bombing launched by Russia between July 5 and 6, the fourth of its kind since the beginning of June.

According to the ISW, although the Ukrainian air defense managed to intercept almost all cruise missiles and most of the drones, It failed to shoot down any of the 29 ballistic missiles used in the attack. Zelensky himself attributed this result to the lack of interceptors Patriotwhile the Ukrainian Air Force claimed that those projectiles were responsible for most of the destruction recorded in Kyiv.

The institute considers that Russia has identified this vulnerability and is adjusting its strategy. According to Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat, Moscow is increasingly turning to ballistic missiles because it knows that Ukraine has a limited number of Patriot interceptors. and that this shortage also affects Western inventories.

The ISW also notes a change in the way Russia use this weapon. After launching between 40 and 41 ballistic missiles in the major attacks in early and mid-June, it reduced that number to 29 in the July 5-6 offensive. The center interprets that the Russian command considers that lPrevious waves have already depleted a good part of the Ukrainian reserves of interceptorsso it now needs to fire fewer ballistic missiles to achieve a similar level of destruction.

Furthermore, the report points out that the timing chosen for the latest attack was not coincidental. The bombing occurred on the eve of the NATO summit in Türkiye and, according to the ISW, sought to increase pressure on kyiv’s Western allies. So, The Kremlin would try to convey that any increase in military support for Ukraine will be responded to with an intensification of its campaign of attacks.a tactic that, according to the institute, it has already used before other high-level diplomatic meetings.

“Ukraine not only seeks to supply itself: it wants to cover Europe’s shortcomings”

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For the defense and intelligence analyst Andrés Gómez de la TorreZelensky’s request responds to an immediate military needbut it is also part of a long-term strategy to consolidate kyiv’s role within the Western security architecture.

“We must look at Zelensky’s request in a strategic vision in relation to NATO,” affirms to The Commerce. He adds that Moscow “has carried out aggressive use of ballistic rocketry” that has hit hard the military and civil infrastructure of Ukrainehighlighting the need to reinforce its anti-aircraft defense.

Gómez de la Torre maintains that the proposal comes at a time when Western inventories of interceptors are under severe pressure. “There is a depletion in the reserves of Patriot missiles,” points out. Remember that the United States, Israel and their allies have consumed a significant part of their stocks in the conflicts of recent years, while Industrial production does not advance at the same pace as demand.

He considers that the Ukrainian bet transcends the objective of supplying its own Armed Forces. In his opinion, NATO sees this possibility as a way to expand its industrial capacity through production on Ukrainian territory. “Ukraine’s vision is not only to supply itself, but to be able to fill the gaps that Europeans have,” holds.

The analyst also emphasizes that the war has accelerated the technological development of the Ukrainian military industry.. “Ukraine, with the war, has developed missile capabilities and experience in drones,” affirms. He says that this learning is of interest for a NATO immersed in a process of rearmament and strengthening of its defense industrial base.

He believes Europe would also have incentives to support Zelensky’s project. “The European Union also needs anti-missile defenses and outsourcing Patriot manufacturing to Ukraine is in its best interest”he maintains. Added to this is the loss of the so-called “defense industrial rhythm,” which has limited production capacity both in Europe and, to some extent, in the United States.

Gómez de la Torre considers that the initiative has an important geopolitical component. “It is not only a strategic military issue, but also one of international positioning”he states. It emphasizes that Zelensky seeks to turn Ukraine into a key link in the Western defense industry, simultaneously strengthening its ties with the United States and the European Union.