REARGUARD ACTION:
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, its influence around the world has waned, as other power blocs have allegedly undermined its interests
Russian President Vladimir Putin has read long-term ally Armenia the riot act: persist in wanting to join the EU and you can kiss goodbye to cheap Russian oil and gas.
Putin issued the warning before a parliamentary election in Armenia on Sunday, which polls suggest the party of Western-leaning Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan could win.
It is not an idle threat. Armenia, a landlocked country of 3 million with centuries-old ties to Russia, is highly dependent on Moscow, which has imposed temporary bans on important Armenian exports before the vote.
Photo: Reuters
Putin’s words reflect an uncomfortable truth for Moscow. Waging war in Ukraine with no end in sight after more than four years of fighting, Russia is mounting an intensifying and increasingly complex rearguard action around the world to try to retain its geopolitical clout.
While Moscow pours resources into the war in Ukraine, the EU and the US have been harrying traditional Russian allies and interests, both in what Moscow sees as its own backyard and further afield.
From Havana and Caracas, from Belgrade to the steppes of Central Asia, and even in west Africa, where Moscow’s forces are helping fight Islamists, Russian influence is under pressure.
Armenia, a longstanding recipient of Russian largesse and home to a Russian military base, signed a partnership agreement with the US last month and Pashinyan won fulsome endorsement from US President Donald Trump.
Armenia passed a law last year setting out a legal basis for it to join the EU.
“Of course we are deeply concerned about the Armenian authorities’ policy of rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic community whose core policy is directed against Moscow,” Russian Ministry or Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. “The Anglo-Saxons are openly boasting about ‘detaching’ Armenia, as they say, from the bear hug of ‘authoritarian Russia.’”
Russian war bloggers and analysts say Russia is facing a concerted and largely Western attempt to squeeze it out of the wider South Caucasus region.
“In such conditions, the question of adapting Russian strategy (to embrace soft power and economic levers) becomes key,” said Russian Telegram channel “The Secret Chancery,” which has more than 400,000 followers.
One source close to the Russian government said Moscow could see that countries such as Armenia were “all waiting to see how the war [in Ukraine] ends” and some were already building new ties while Moscow was largely distracted elsewhere.
For Moscow, Armenia’s hosting a meeting of European leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last month was the last straw.
Since then, Russia has temporarily banned the import of many Armenian goods, warned it might cut off cheap oil, gas and rough diamond exports, suggested Armenia could be expelled from the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led trade bloc, and recalled its envoy to Armenia for consultations.
Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful Security Council, hinted that Armenia’s prime minister could, if not careful, suffer the fate of Bolshevik revolutionary Leon Trotsky whom Josef Stalin had killed with an ice pick.
Meanwhile, Trump, who Moscow hoped would have strong-armed Ukraine into suing for peace, has targeted three traditionally Russia-friendly countries: Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.
His actions have lifted oil prices, offering some respite to the battered Russian economy, but they have exposed Moscow’s inability to meaningfully help old friends. Havana has received only one shipment of Russian oil so far.
In Europe, Moscow complains it faces an increasingly hostile continent that is rearming while holding out the prospect of EU membership to countries where Russia once held sway.
Putin ally Viktor Orban lost power in Hungary in April, freeing up billions of euros in EU funding for Budapest. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, another Russian ally, is under pressure, with moves under way to abolish visa-free entry for Russians as Belgrade seeks EU membership.
Russia is feeling the heat in Transdniestria, a Russian-garrisoned separatist enclave which is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, whose political leadership wants to join the EU.
Russia is worried about what it casts as encroaching Western influence in Central Asia, while in the South Caucasus Putin is trying to move past a rocky period in relations with oil-producing Azerbaijan, which has strengthened ties with the West.
