June 26, 2026 at – 01:49
La Albirroja added 4 points after drawing against Australia and remains in the fight for the best third parties. Although the math says that the classification is about to fall, there is still a catastrophic combo that would leave it out.
The tie left mixed feelings. On the one hand, the team led by Gustavo Alfaro reached a line of 4 points which, in the vast majority of scenarios, is more than enough to advance to the round of 32 of the World Cup. However, the official celebration is on pause. It will be time to be expectant, light candles and watch the games of the remaining groups.
Read more: Paraguay equals with Australia and remains in line with the classification
The current scenario: What does Paraguay need to seal the ticket?
Although the South Americans were in a very favorable position, total armor has not yet arrived. La Albirroja needs, at least, four of the third in the other groups finish below their line to secure a place among the eight best third parties who advance to the next round.
The good news is that, thanks to its four units, Paraguay has already surpassed third parties in other sectors such as South Korea and Scotlandwho said goodbye with just three points. Furthermore, fortune is on their side in Group I, where the third (who will start between Senegal or Iraq) has a maximum ceiling of three units. While this mathematical combination gives you a tremendous cushion of peace of mind, the classification cannot yet be officially announced.
The only “catastrophic” scenario that eliminates Paraguay
The real probability that Albirroja will be eliminated is one tiny 0.8%but mathematically the danger exists. For the Guarani catastrophe to occur, Each and every one of the following conditions must be met on the last day of the group stage:
- Group G: Belgium must beat New Zealand and Iran must beat Egypt.
- Group H: Cape Verde has to beat Saudi Arabia (or if Arabia by at least two goals) and Uruguay must beat Spain.
- Group J: Algeria and Austria have to tie with goals.
- Group K: Democratic Republic of the Congo must beat Uzbekistan.
- Group L: Croatia has to beat Ghana by a minimum difference of three goals.
If even one of these results does not occur, Paraguay will automatically be in the next round.
The future of Group D: Who would be the rivals?
With the positions of Group D practically defined, the panorama of the crossings begins to clear up on the horizon:
- United States (1st in the group): It will be measured against one of the best third parties that comes from zones B, E, F, I or J.
- The second of the group: They will play against the second placed team in Group G.
- Paraguay (If it classifies as best third): His rival in the round of 16 will be the undisputed leader of the zones AND (Germany)YO (France or Norway) or K. (Colombia or Portugal).
