Vísir’s election forecast made by mathematician Baldur Héðinsson has been updated based on a Gallup survey conducted from April 17 to 29. The Independence Party strengthens its position as the largest party in the city, and there is now well over half the probability that the party will win seven representatives.
The coalition has just over half the chance of getting six city representatives. The probability that Bjarni Fritzson, the eighth person of the Independence Party, will get in is measured at 38 percent, while the probability is half that that Regína Ásvaldsdóttir, in seventh place with the Samfylking, will get in.
The Left is still the third largest party in the city and could get three city representatives with Stefán Pálsson’s increased chances of getting in.
Viðreisn and Miðflokkur are now competing as a pair and are having a tough fight to get their third city representative. Þorvaldur Davíð Kristjánsson in third place for Viðreisn has a 46 percent chance of a seat in the city council, while the probability is 43 percent in the case of Lárus Blöndal in third place in the Central Party.
Silja Sóley Birgisdóttir, leader of the Socialist Party, strengthens her position, but a lot needs to happen for the party to get another representative. Kristinn Jón Ólafsson, head of the Pirates, is still fairly certain to get in, but city representative Alexandra Briem is very unlikely to have a seat at the moment.
Einar Þorsteinsson’s position, leader of the Progressive Party, weakens slightly between election forecasts, and there are just over half the probability that he will win a seat in the city. Magnea Gná Jóhannsdóttir, the current city representative, is in second place and it seems like it is a distant dream that she will get in.
Guðmundur Ingi Þóroddsson, leader of the People’s Party, does not fit in the city council and his position is weakening. The probability of a seat is only 30 percent. Sigfús Aðalsteinsson, the mayor of Our City, is even less likely than before to get into the city council. The probability is only 14 percent.
Possible majorities
The only possible two-party majority in the city is the collaboration between the Independence Party and the Samfylking. It can be considered highly unlikely that such changes will occur in the following twelve days, that other two-party majorities will be possible.
The probability that the Independence Party, Viðreisn and the Central Party would form a twelve-member majority on the right is currently 64 percent. The probability that Samfylking can form a majority on the left with Vinstrina and Viðreisn is 35 percent. It is likely that the Confederation would have to invite the Pirates, Progress or the Socialists to a dance to achieve a majority of twelve with the Left and Viðreisn.
