After a two-month break, the fiscal rule regarding the purchase or sale of currency on the domestic market will be resumed. On Thursday, April 23, the Ministry of Finance announced that in early May it would announce the volume of transactions for the coming month. These, obviously, will no longer be sales of yuan from reserves, as has been the case since July 2025, but their purchases in the National Welfare Fund at the expense of additional oil and gas budget revenues that have appeared due to the events around Iran. The ruble reacted with restraint to the expected announcement by the Ministry of Finance, weakening against the yuan by the close of the Moscow Exchange session by only 1%.
“In order to increase the stability and predictability of domestic economic conditions and reduce the impact of volatile energy market conditions on the Russian economy and financial system, the Russian Ministry of Finance is resuming operations for the purchase / sale of foreign currency and gold in the domestic foreign exchange market within the framework of the budget rule from May,” the financial department said on Thursday. As before, the specific amount of daily transactions will be announced on the third business day of the month. Let us explain, in this case it will be May 6th. The Ministry of Finance also clarified that the May amount will include the volume of operations postponed in March and April.
On the suspension of currency sales on the market department reported March 4, explaining this by the upcoming change in the cut-off price for oil under the budget rule.
Let us recall that, in accordance with the budget rule, the Ministry of Finance buys currency for the National Welfare Fund on the market when the actual cost of Urals at the end of the month is higher than the established base price, the minimum required to cover government spending (in other words, when additional oil and gas revenues appear). When the oil price goes below the cut-off mark, on the contrary, the Ministry of Finance announces the sale of part of the reserves.
The March decision to suspend operations was a signal that the current cut-off price of $59 per barrel would not hold and would be shifted towards the actual price of Urals. The authorities were then pushed to take such a step by difficulties with filling the oil and gas part of the budget and by the desire to save the savings of the National Welfare Fund. Let us explain that the price of Urals determined for calculating taxes in January was only $41 per barrel, and in February – $44.6.
However, subsequent events in the Middle East raised the average price of Russian oil in March to $77 per barrel.
This surge did not affect federal budget revenues in March, since additional oil and gas revenues arrive to the state treasury only in April, with a one-month lag. In April, oil prices are close to $100 per barrel and, due to the incompleteness of the conflict and extensive damage to the oil infrastructure of the Middle East, are expected to remain high for a long time.
The “change of scenery” changed the mood in the Russian government. Talk about lowering the cut-off price (which also implies cutting costs to maintain a zero primary balance) has ceased. Now the authorities are reporting that the budget rule will be adjusted for the next three years, and in terms of expenses we are talking only about the redistribution of money within the approved amounts.
The return of foreign exchange transactions announced on Thursday did not come as a surprise.
Although less than a month ago, on March 27, a government resolution was adopted to suspend them until July 1, already in mid-April, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that the White House was considering the possibility of a faster resumption of operations. “We must be more flexible in connection with the changing situation,” the minister said then.
The Ministry of Finance has been selling, rather than buying, currency since July 2025, which is when world oil prices went down. The scale of sales changed monthly – the last volume before the suspension of the rule (February) amounted to 226.8 billion rubles. In March, based on oil prices, yuan were also supposed to be sold, but in April they were already purchased at the expense of additional income. According to the Ministry of Finance, the failed March sales and April purchases would have been approximately equal in amount.
Experts preliminary estimate possible May purchase volumes at 300–400 billion rubles, and they may affect the ruble exchange rate. So far, however, the ruble, which has been strengthening throughout the last month, has responded to the expected announcement of the Ministry of Finance with restraint – the yuan to ruble exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange by the close of the trading session increased by 1.08% compared to the previous day, to 11.07 rubles. per yuan.
