Aluminum prices hit a record, rising to $3,644 per ton. In Tajikistan, aluminum production in 2026 is projected to increase by 20%, and exports will increase by 15%, which opens up new prospects for the country’s economy in the context of high metal costs.
In 2026, aluminum prices according to online platform TradingEconomics.com, on the London Metal Exchange (LME) exceeded $3.6 thousand per ton.
Aluminum prices have changed significantly over the past year. Until April 2025, the price fluctuated between $2,400–2,500 per ton, remaining stable with minor fluctuations. From April to December 2025, the price began to rise, reaching $2,600–2,700 per ton, which may be due to increased demand or seasonal fluctuations. However, from the beginning of 2026 there has been a sharp increase, and by mid-April the price had risen to $3,500–3,600 per ton.
Reasons for the rise in aluminum prices
Experts at TradingEconomics.com explain the increase in aluminum prices by the following factors: aluminum futures in the UK exceeded $3,600 thousand per ton, approaching a more than four-year high. This is due to the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf is an important waterway through which approximately 9% of the world’s primary aluminum passes.
In addition, the conflict has had an impact on production capacity, as major processing plants in the UAE and Bahrain were damaged by Iranian attacks. Analysts warn that supply constraints could persist for months even if fighting stops and Hormuz opens up. Restoring damaged smelting and refining capacity may take considerable time. Companies Emirates Global Aluminum saidthat full restoration of production may take at least a year.
Prospects for Tajikistan
For Tajikistan, where the aluminum industry is an important element of the economy, such changes in the market open up new opportunities. Forecasts for 2026 showthat aluminum production in the country will increase by 20%, reaching 131 thousand tons. This is due to the expansion of production capacity and improvement of the work of the largest aluminum producer in Tajikistan – TALCO. The influence of favorable conditions on the global aluminum market also has a positive impact on results.
In addition, aluminum exports from Tajikistan in 2026 are projected to be 105 thousand tons, an increase of 15% compared to 2025. In value terms, exports will be equal to $243 million, which also represents an increase of 10.4%. This dynamic is confirmed Customs data Tajikistan, where aluminum continues to be one of the main export goods.
In the first quarter of 2026, Tajikistan exported aluminum and products made from it in the amount of $24.6 million, which amounted to 5.8 thousand tons.
