The largest banks reduced the volume of mortgage issuance in May, both under preferential programs and under market ones. A rare exception were banks that increased their market share primarily through their own programs. What set them apart were lower market mortgage rates. However, experts expect a new turn towards state programs in the near future, which will help restore demand for “Family Mortgage”, the introduction of new requirements for which has been delayed by three months, until October 1.
Most of the largest banks have reduced mortgage issuance volumes in May 2026. According to PJSC Dom.RF, the volume of loans issued by banks from the top 10 in terms of mortgage portfolio volume over the past month decreased by 8%, to 330 billion rubles. Thus, reductions were shown by Sberbank (by 10%, to 231 billion rubles), VTB (by 6%, to 28 billion rubles), Alfa Bank (by 14%, to 24 billion rubles) and Sovcombank (by 7%, to 9.8 billion rubles). At the same time, the decline occurred not only in issuances under market, but also under preferential programs (see “Kommersant” dated May 6).
It was these banks that until recently had some of the highest rates on market programs. As follows from the data of Dom.RF PJSC, at the beginning of the month the weighted average rate on loans for new housing was 19.2% per annum, and on the secondary market – 18.8% per annum. By the end of the month, rates dropped by only 0.1 percentage points. In the banks under consideration, rates during the month were higher than the weighted average by 0.3–0.8 percentage points for primary housing and by 0.7–1.7 percentage points for secondary housing.
Experts and market participants attribute the May decline to seasonality and holidays. However, seasonality did not prevent a number of banks (Dom.RF, T-Bank, MKB) from increasing the issuance of mortgages, primarily through market programs.
In particular, the volume of mortgage issuance at Dom.RF Bank increased one and a half times over the month, to 12.5 billion rubles, with market programs accounting for 5.3 billion rubles. As a result, the share of the bank’s preferential programs for the first time in a year and a half was less than 60%, although previously it mostly exceeded 90%.
Deputy Chairman of the Bank’s Board Alexey Kosyakov noted that in May, demand from borrowers for market mortgages increased. At the same time, the bank’s rates for such programs for primary and secondary housing were lower than the market average by 1.8 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.
In general, the turn towards banks’ own programs began on February 1, when the new Family Mortgage rules came into force (see “Kommersant” dated March 4). If in January the share of preferential programs in total issuance volumes was about 82%, then in May the figure reached 55%, according to data from the Bank of Russia. However, the growth in the share of market programs was mainly ensured by the refinancing of previously taken out loans or mortgages for small amounts for secondary housing. However, as Pavel Zholobov, senior director of financial institution ratings at the NRA, notes, “today the mortgage market is in a terminal stage, when rates have already begun to decline, but are still not attractive enough to create mass demand for mortgages.”
However, a reverse process is expected in the near future due to planned changes to the rules for issuing “Family Mortgages”, which should come into force on October 1. The introduction of differential rates and limits may lead to an increase in the issuance of loans under the preferential program in the next three months.
“Citizens, due to the “deadline effect,” which has been observed more than once in the market against the backdrop of planned changes in the program, will strive to obtain a loan at current rates,” points out Ekaterina Shchurikhina, director of bank ratings at the Expert RA agency.
Last December, a month before the introduction of stricter rules for Family Mortgages, the total volume of issuances reached 800 billion rubles, a record value in the entire history of the market (see “Kommersant” dated January 16). After the deadline was adjusted, in January the volume of issuance reached 421 billion rubles, a record value for this month (see “Kommersant” dated February 7).
Market participants are already noticing an increase in the volume of mortgages issued under preferential programs. In particular, at Dom.RF Bank, the volume of such loans in June increased by 77% compared to May. In the future, according to Alexey Kosyakov, loans will continue to grow, and market programs will be able to “take over” preferential ones when the mortgage rate drops to 12% per annum.
