The El Niño weather phenomenon has already begun, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on Thursday, June 11, 2026, and scientists expect it to intensify towards the end of the year, potentially reaching historic strength that could lead to a “prolonged” period of above-average temperatures.
In their latest report, NOAA scientists noted that “El Niño-like conditions developed over the past month (May 2026),” as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific.
“There is a 63% probability that a very intense phenomenon will occur between November and January, which would be among the strongest episodes recorded since 1950,” says the report.
Sea surface temperatures are likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius above usual in its impact area in the Pacific. The US Meteorological Office declares the formation of El Niño when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for “several consecutive months.”
A hellish 2027?
For countries in its impact zone, such as the United States, this means drier conditions and a warmer winter than usual, NOAA noted, although it will also mean more storms in the south of the North American country. El Niño winds also mean a higher chance of tropical cyclones in the Pacific, but a lower chance of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
El Niño, which lasts between nine months and a year, causes global changes in wind and rainfall patterns, as well as erratic weather conditions. Scientists fear it will add temperature to a planet already warming from the burning of fossil fuels, and amplify extreme weather events.
While it typically peaks at the end of the year, heat stored in the oceans is released more slowly into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures the following year. That’s why many climatologists fear that 2027 will break the record for the warmest year ever recorded.
