Overdue receivables in the Russian corporate sector have reached their worst level since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
About this informs Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Overdue receivables of the Russian corporate sector increased by 26% – from $79.3 billion to $100 billion – and its share in the total structure reached 10.3%.
“This is the worst indicator since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The Kremlin is methodically destroying what is left of the business climate in the country,” SZRU assures.
The total amount of receivables is almost unchanged at $1.6 trillion, but this is a deceptive stability. Creditor debt of enterprises reached $650.9 billion, and the share of overdue liabilities increased from 6.9% to 8.2%.
Payment chains are breaking throughout the economy, the intelligence says.
The key mechanism of self-destruction is the interest policy of the state. Average rates on business loans in 2025 were kept at the level of 18-25% per annum, with the profitability of most industries at 8-12%.
At the same time, short-term deposits yielded 14–16%. The arithmetic is simple: paying counterparties is unprofitable, keeping money on deposit is profitable. Companies en masse choose the second option, shifting the burden to chain partners.
The aggregate financial result of Russian companies in 2025 fell to $352.1 billion – minus 4% in nominal terms and almost minus 13% after taking inflation into account.
“Business has impoverished, but liabilities to banks have not decreased,” the report says.
As always, small and medium-sized businesses turned out to be the most vulnerable. 31% of enterprises ended the year with significant non-payments by counterparties, primarily state structures, which is indicative.
In 19% of companies, invoices were not paid for more than six months. The state, which is already draining the resource through mobilization and defense spending, is not yet paying suppliers.
If at the beginning of 2025, problems with settlements between counterparties were cited as the main obstacle to work by 27% of companies, then in December their share increased to 42.3%. The business environment is degrading faster than the Kremlin has time to issue victory reports.
Analysts believe that defaults in the Russian corporate sector will become systemic, the report says.
“The state, which at the same time keeps the key rate at a suffocating level, does not fulfill its own payment obligations and absorbs human and financial resources for the needs of the war, consistently destroys the conditions for normal management,” writes the SZRU.
We will remind:
Earlier reportedthat the number of judicial acts in criminal cases with confiscation of property increased in Russia from 11,000 to 31,000 in 2023-2025, and the new laws opened wider opportunities for confiscation.
Formerly SZRU reportedthat at the beginning of 2026, the budget crisis in the regions of Russia entered a practical phase, manifesting itself in massive delays in the payment of salaries in the budget sector.
Formerly SZRU reportedthat sanctions, the loss of foreign markets and the deterioration of the world economy have exposed the structural weakness of Russian regional budgets, which are no longer able to withstand basic obligations.
