MOSCOW, April 22. /TASS/. The US has extended its ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for negotiations, despite uncertainty over Tehran’s response; the future of Druzhba pipeline oil supplies remains unclear as political disputes over EU funding and sanctions persist; and Russia’s seaborne oil exports have rebounded after weeks of decline thanks to recovering shipments in the Baltic. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The ceasefire regime between the United States and Iran has received an unexpected extension: on the evening of April 21, US President Donald Trump announced that the pause would remain in place until Tehran presents its proposals and negotiations are brought to a conclusion. This decision has reduced the risks of immediate escalation, yet it has not resolved the key contradictions between the parties. Iranian state television, immediately following Trump’s statement, released a position according to which Tehran does not recognize the extension of the ceasefire and may choose to observe it or not, guided by its own national interests. Amid mutual accusations and uncertainty, the risk of a return to military escalation in the Middle East is increasing rapidly, Izvestia writes.
The decision to postpone US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Pakistan, taken on the evening of April 21, became an alarming signal for the negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. However, a few hours later, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire regime until Tehran presents its proposals and negotiations are finalized. According to him, the pause will last as long as necessary to reach agreements.
Saeed Khan, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, told Izvestia that the cancellation of Vance’s visit appeared more like a tactical step than an acknowledgment of a deadlock. In his view, Trump found himself in a difficult negotiating position and sought a way to exit the conflict while preserving the ability to claim a diplomatic success. The tough rhetoric of the White House in this situation, Khan believes, is intended to show strength and enhance the United States’ future negotiating position, even if the actual balance of forces does not fully correspond to such statements.
The United States and Israel cannot end this conflict with a military victory over Iran, Matthew Hoh, a veteran of the Iraq war and a former captain in the US Marine Corps, told Izvestia. The best they can hope for is more favorable strategic and political positions compared to those that existed at the beginning of the war, he said, adding that regardless of the form the end of the war takes, it will be perceived as a defeat for the United States.
The current situation is balancing between de-escalation and escalation, although the balance is currently tilting toward the former scenario, according to Egyptian international relations expert Tarek al-Bardisi. In his opinion, the escalation observed in recent days has been tactical in nature and primarily aimed at improving the negotiating positions of the parties rather than transitioning to a full-scale conflict. The dialogue between Washington and Tehran has not reached a deadlock but has merely slowed temporarily and may be resumed in subsequent rounds. Neither side is interested in returning to war, the expert believes.
Russia is ready to resume oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 21. Hungary’s Minister for European Union Affairs Janos Boka praised Budapest’s policy of blocking the European Union’s decision to grant Kiev a 90 bln euro loan until the pipeline becomes operational. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Ukraine is likely to condition the resumption of Druzhba oil transit on Hungary lifting its veto on EU financing and sanctions, while European states may continue using the issue as leverage to protect their economic interests and gain from Russian oil flows.
Kiev will continue to use the potential resumption of the Druzhba pipeline as a tool of leverage against certain Eastern European states, head of the Ukraine sector at the Institute of CIS Countries Ivan Skorikov believes. At present, the issue remains in limbo during the transfer of power from Orban to Magyar in Hungary, the expert noted. “The Ukrainian leadership will agree to resume oil transit through the pipeline only after the new Hungarian authorities lift their veto on the European loan and approve the 20th package of anti-Russian sanctions. Until then, Russian oil will not be able to reach Eastern European consumers,” he told Vedomosti.
According to international political analyst Alexander Nemtsev, Hungary’s new authorities will continue Orban’s policy toward Ukraine and will use the issue of the European loan as a bargaining tool. The Hungarian leadership still does not want to share the burden of European expenditures on Ukraine, the expert believes. “Following the opposition’s victory in elections in Bulgaria, the circle of so-called ‘pragmatic politicians’ in Europe – those primarily interested in safeguarding their national interests – may grow,” he added.
Hungary and other European states seek to continue profiting from Russian oil by reselling it to other European consumers amid disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East, Nemtsev believes. “Russian oil has become a valuable asset, and it would be a mistake to give it up,” the expert concluded.
Russia is open to holding talks on cooperation with Western Arctic countries in the operation of the Northern Sea Route, Director of the European Problems Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Vladislav Maslennikov told Izvestia. Against the backdrop of the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, global interest in the Northern Sea Route as a safer and shorter alternative is increasing. At present, Russia’s main partners in developing Arctic logistics remain China and India, but experts do not rule out that Norway and Finland may also join the project in the future.
The advantages of the Northern Sea Route amid geopolitical turbulence are becoming increasingly evident, including security, a shorter logistical distance, and high environmental sustainability, Maslennikov told Izvestia.
“Russia is open to substantive dialogue with all those prepared for constructive and mutually beneficial cooperation. At present, such cooperation is developing primarily with non-regional countries, above all China and India. If Western Arctic countries show interest, we will consider possible formats of interaction with their participation as well,” he said.
However, it is too early to expect that the Northern Sea Route will replace southern trade corridors, Boris Martsinkevich, editor of the Geoenergetika online portal, told the newspaper.
“At present, the Northern Sea Route is used mainly for exporting oil, LNG, and ensuring northern deliveries. For it to truly become a major international corridor, not only icebreakers are needed, but also developed ports, year-round service infrastructure, emergency rescue and medical services, repair facilities, and an emergency fleet of reinforced ice-class vessels,” he emphasized.
The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, has approved the removal of restrictions on the export of “lethal” military equipment, including warships, missiles, artillery systems, and heavy armored vehicles. As Takaichi herself reported on her page on X, modern conditions compel every country to seek partners, including in the sphere of arms supplies. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Japan’s decision will expand arms exports mainly to Asia-Pacific countries, strengthen its domestic defense industry and partnerships with the US and NATO, but is unlikely to secure a dominant global market position due to high costs.
According to Japanese agency Kyodo News, although deliveries to countries engaged in conflicts remain prohibited, the new provisions allow for the sale of weapons “in special cases” when Japan’s national security is concerned. In addition, each transaction will be reviewed individually by the country’s National Security Council. It was emphasized that, although the geography of supplies will be limited to countries that have agreements with Tokyo on the transfer of defense equipment and technologies (currently 17), the Japanese government will ensure that this equipment or weaponry does not reach third countries.
The Japanese government’s decision will open up opportunities for exporting its weapons primarily to Asian countries and Australia interested in creating a counterbalance to China’s military power, Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov told Vedomosti. These may include the Philippines, India, Indonesia, and even Vietnam, the expert noted. Due to the high cost of Japanese equipment, it is unlikely that Japan will be able to match South Korea’s success in global arms markets, he continued. In addition, the decision formally removes bureaucratic barriers in the field of joint development of weapons and defense technologies with the United States and its allies, the expert emphasized.
According to a military-diplomatic source cited by Vedomosti, unlike South Korean armaments, which incorporate many American assemblies, components, and technologies, Japanese weapons generally rely on domestic developments.
The decision to export weapons will significantly reshape Japan’s role, Lead Researcher of the Group of Economics and Politics of Japan of the Center for Asia Pacific Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Viktor Kuzminkov said. Whereas Tokyo previously operated strictly under the US security umbrella, it will now develop its own defense industry and arm neighboring friendly states. Japan’s cooperation with NATO is also actively expanding.
Russia’s seaborne oil exports on April 13-19 rose by 22% week-on-week to 355,000 tons per day, according to calculations by the Center for Price Indices. Shipments increased for the first time after three consecutive weeks of decline. The number of tankers loaded rose from 20 to 24 vessels. The situation improved due to the recovery of shipments from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, although supplies from Novorossiysk remain halted, Kommersant writes. According to the newspaper, damage to port infrastructure caused by attacks led to a decline in the previously heightened demand for transporting Russian oil, which in turn triggered a correction in freight rates.
According to Center for Price Indices’ estimates, 38% of Baltic shipments are headed for Turkey, 28% for India, 18% for Egypt, and 8% for China. One Aframax-class tanker with a deadweight of 100,000 tons is heading in an unknown direction. Shipments from Kozmino increased by 11.1% to 143,000 tons per day. Seven Aframax tankers are en route to China, two to India, and one to Singapore.
Exports from Baltic ports are recovering after a decline caused by infrastructure damage resulting from drone attacks. Center for Price Indices analyst David Martirosyan noted that export volumes from western ports in 2025 amounted to 172,000 – 201,000 tons per day.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, believes that oil companies are being incentivized to increase shipments by the desire to capture a geopolitical premium that has emerged due to supply shortages and Asia’s search for alternatives to Middle Eastern oil.
Under these conditions, according to Center for Price Indices’ forecasts, Russia’s seaborne oil exports are expected to decline to 310,000 – 360,000 tons per day by the end of the month – the lowest level since 2023.
According to Martirosyan, the extension of a US license for the purchase of Russian oil could boost interest in Russian crude “on the water,” which would likely lead to market diversification. On April 17, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued the third license since the beginning of hostilities in the Middle East allowing the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto tankers before that date. Transactions are permitted until May 16.
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