Following Peruvian politics is a great challenge, not only because of the number of presidents who have governed Peru in the last ten years, but because of the continuous political reforms from one election to the next. Next Sunday the general elections will be held in a context that, paraphrasing the political scientist Manuel Alcántara, could be described as a “fatigued democracy.” Since 2012, the Americas Barometer has consistently recorded lower satisfaction with the functioning of democracy. Since 2016, presidents have failed to complete their five-year terms, recording an average of 14 months in office. The novelty in these elections is that after 36 years a bicameral Congress will be elected, replacing the current unicameral one.
What is chosen?
The 2026 general election has been described as the most complex so far this century. Voters will have to choose their candidates on a 42 cm super ballot. wide by 44 cm. long, which has five columns, corresponding to the presidential election, the bicameral Congress and the Andean Parliament.
Thirty-five candidates participate in the presidential election, of which only four are women. Each list also presents two candidates for vice president. According to electoral rules, if none of the candidates obtains an absolute majority, a second election is held between the candidates who have obtained the two highest relative majorities. With just a few days left until the election, it is not possible to predict who will contest the election.
presidency in the second round, but it is clear that the polls will return on June 7.
The new Congress will be composed of a Senate of 60 members and the Chamber of Deputies of 130 representatives. 37 lists participate. Senators are elected with a mixed electoral system: 30 by national constituency, 26 in single-member constituencies and 4 by the metropolitan region of Lima. The Chamber of Deputies is elected with a proportional system in 27 constituencies. Only 19% of the lists for the Senate and 27% of lists for the Chamber of Deputies are headed by women. The entire Congress is elected for 5 years.
For the election of deputies and senators, voters vote in parties, but they can optionally use the preferential vote by indicating up to two candidates of their preference within the chosen party. Various studies have shown the effects of preferential voting on intra-party dynamics, as well as on the electoral process. Perhaps one of the most relevant is the potential impact on the number of null votes, since it is regularly higher in the election of congressmen than in the vote for president. This is not a minor issue since in the 2016 parliamentary elections 35% of the votes were invalid and in 2021 27%. In this year’s election, the number of lists and the election of a bicameral Congress make voting more complex.
A novelty is the double representation threshold that parties must achieve for the distribution of seats. For the Chamber of Deputies, it is necessary to reach seven seats and 5% of the valid votes at the national level. In the case of the Senate, three seats and 5% of the valid votes at the national level. The computation is independent in each camera.
The double threshold will have an important effect in reducing the number of parties with parliamentary representation, which can contribute to governability. However, in a context of high political fragmentation it can increase overrepresentation and affect legitimacy, since around thirty parties could be left without representation.
The candidates
In the right-wing camp, Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) is running for the fourth time. In the last three elections he lost the presidency by a narrow margin, but his party achieved significant participation in Congress in all of them. It has the advantage of having an electoral base in almost all regions of the country. Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) resigned from the Mayor’s Office of Lima to run for the presidency for the second time. Carlos Álvarez (País para Todos), a well-known political impersonator, is running for the first time. Joining the candidates from the right-wing spectrum is Ricardo Belmont (Partido Cívico Obras), a former mayor of Lima in the nineties, remembered as the first outsider in Peruvian politics, prior to Alberto Fujimori.
On the left, Roberto Sánchez (Together for Peru), a sitting congressman, was an ally and minister of Pedro Castillo and seeks to vindicate him. Also in the left field is Alfonso López Chau ( Ahora Nación ), an economist and former rector of a public university. This short list is completed by two centrist candidates: Jorge Nieto (Good Government Party), who was President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s minister, and Marisol Pérez Tello (People First), a former congressman and also a former minister during the Kuczynski government. Only three of the eight parties of these candidates have representation in the current Congress.
The surveys
In the 2021 elections, 18 candidates participated and for the first time the sum of the valid votes of the two candidates who went to the second round did not reach 50% of the votes, totaling only 32%. According to the latest polls, the current fragmentation is similar to last elections and the difference in voting intentions between candidates is narrow.
With a campaign that has heated up in recent days, the ending may be surprising. The latest IPSOS survey showed that Fujimori rose from 13.7% to 15%, consolidating first place in preferences. For his part, López Aliaga, who a month ago led the polls with 11%, dropped to 7%, occupying third place. 27% did not express themselves, they would vote blank or null. In this scenario, any growth in voting intention can have an important impact on defining the candidates that go to the second round, but also on the formation of Congress.
The main topics of debate
Public policies to address organized crime and the problems of extortion and contract killings have been a central part of the debate. The proposals range from building more prisons, applying the death penalty for serious crimes and denouncing the American Convention on Human Rights to police reform and repealing so-called “pro-crime” laws, which in the opinion of some make sanctions more flexible. Other relevant issues in the campaign have been policies against migration and informal mining, which seriously impacts the environment, security, tax revenues and formal investment.
Peru is witnessing an electoral process with high political fragmentation. The six “favorite” parties have 45% of voting intention. This is consistent with the low support for political parties, due to a long crisis of representation. In the uncertainty, the truth is that the presidential election will be decided in the second round. Predictably, no party will have a majority in the chambers and the president will have to build a legislative shield to survive and address the problems that afflict Peruvians.
*This article was originally published in Latin America 21.
