The parliamentary elections in Armenia, scheduled for June 7, will be held against the backdrop of geopolitical tension unprecedented in the history of the republic. After eight years of Nikol Pashinyan’s rule and dramatic changes in the South Caucasus, voters will have to decide not only the next composition of the government, but also what foreign policy course Yerevan will take: whether Armenia will continue to move closer to the West or restore its previous relations with Russia. The ruling party still leads in the polls, but the huge number of undecided voters adds some intrigue to the upcoming vote.
The parliamentary elections on June 7 are the first planned election campaign in Armenia after 2018. That year, the “velvet revolution” happened, in the wake of which Nikol Pashinyan, the leader of street protests who boldly challenged the then government, came to power. After the defeat in the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, the country found itself in a deep crisis. The ruling party “Civil Contract” found itself in a deep crisis, but nevertheless was able to win early elections.
Over the past eight years, a lot has changed in Armenia. In 2023, the country finally lost Nagorno-Karabakh, after which the ruling party essentially had no obstacles to a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
Nikol Pashinyan, in whose previous election campaign the thesis about the right of Karabakh residents to self-determination sounded, formed a new vision – “real Armenia” instead of “historical”. Now the prime minister calls for abandoning the lost past and adapting to new geopolitical realities: previously hostile Azerbaijan and Türkiye will now become economic partners; the previous threats do not exist.
These geopolitical changes largely influenced how Nikol Pashinyan’s party began to look at relations with Russia. Several years ago, in the “Civil Contract” program, Moscow was called a strategic ally, but now such formulations cannot be found among a political force. But the party stubbornly insists that the country’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) should remain frozen: back in 2024, Nikol Pashinyan made it clear that he did not intend to forgive the organization’s inaction during Azerbaijan’s military operations.
Instead, the ruling party has taken leaps and bounds towards further rapprochement with the European Union and the United States. In particular, a large-scale transport project “Trump Route” is planned with Washington, which will connect the territory of Azerbaijan with its exclave of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the Syunik region of Armenia.
At the same time, the West itself is actively drawing Armenia into its orbit. “The geopolitical alignment is gradually developing, in the formation of which the current ruling group in Armenia participates, but insignificantly. There is a struggle between geopolitical forces for the South Caucasus. Russia abandoned this fight. Its opponents win, who ultimately put pressure on Armenia to take their position,” explained Grant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, in a conversation with Kommersant.
Nikol Pashinyan nicknamed the opposition, which criticizes the government, including for its turn away from Russia, “the three-headed party of war.”
According to him, if she comes to power, the country will very soon (according to the prime minister’s estimates, as early as September) find itself in a state of war. Who are we talking about? First of all, about the Russian businessman of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the recently formed Strong Armenia bloc, arrested on charges of calling for a seizure of power.
Samvel Karapetyan is the head of the Tashir group of companies (GC), which deals with commercial real estate, public catering, and energy (the GC owns the Electric Networks of Armenia company, which the Armenian authorities are going to nationalize). Among the key promises of this political force are the creation of 300 thousand jobs, stimulation of industrial production, and support for the Armenian Apostolic Church.
In terms of foreign policy, the bloc advocates strategic cooperation with Russia and the CSTO while simultaneously deepening ties with the EU. The campaign is largely focused on the Karabakh issue. At the debate of political forces held on June 3, party representatives repeatedly repeated that the ruling party “betrayed” the residents of Artsakh (the Armenian name for Karabakh), their rights must be protected.
In addition to “Strong Armenia,” the “Armenia” bloc of ex-President Robert Kocharyan, which was criticized for corruption in power, is participating in the confrontation with the ruling party. Blaming Nikol Pashinyan for the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and incompetent governance, Kocharyan convinces citizens that his political experience will correct the mistakes of the current government. However, dissatisfaction with his figure in Armenia remains, and when asked why Kocharyan himself, during ten years in power, was unable to resolve the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, he and his associates answer evasively.
Another representative of the so-called old opposition of Armenia is the leader of the Prosperous Armenia party Gagik Tsarukyan. One of the richest people in the country, the owner of the large concern “Multi Group” (cognac production, gas stations, pharmaceutical company, shopping centers) also advocates a balanced foreign policy of Armenia. At the same time, he puts forward populist economic initiatives, such as free public education, lower prices for utilities and debt forgiveness with small loans.
In total, 16 parties and 2 blocs are participating in the elections, but a minority of them have a real chance of overcoming the threshold for entering parliament (4% for a party and 8% for a bloc).
According to a May poll by Gallup International Association, 29% of respondents are ready to vote for the “Civil Contract”, 15% for “Strong Armenia”, 12% for Robert Kocharyan’s bloc, and 9% are ready to support “Prosperous Armenia”.
Recent studies show that many voters are either undecided or simply do not answer sociologists’ questions. And this percentage of “silent” and undecided people can have a very significant impact on the final results if they still decide to come to the polling stations on June 7.
Against this background, the “Against All” party, formed as an alternative for those voters who are disappointed with the political system and do not want to vote for any of the candidates, attracts special attention. Party members travel around Yerevan in Spider-Man costumes and put forward a political program for only 100 days, during which the party plans to carry out a reform of the electoral legislation, and then new elections.
