The author is a former ambassador and director of the British-European organization European Leadership Network (ELN)
The discussion in Slovakia about Russia mostly oscillates between two extremes: Mask as an existential threat, capable of occupying Europe as far as Berlin tomorrow, and Russia as a backward and weak country that poses no threat as it cannot even occupy Ukraine, let alone part of Europe.
At first glance, these two poles of reasoning are irreconcilable, black and white. However, the reality is a bit more complicated.
Let’s try to bounce back from the facts. We cannot pretend that Russia does not exist, even if we fundamentally disagree with the hostile Russian foreign policy.
And although it is in decline, it still has enough resources, whether conventional, such as the military, or unconventional, such as various hybrid capabilities, to influence European security.
What is very important, he has not only the means, but also the will. The current Russian leadership – with the support of the majority of society – defines Moscow’s strategic, political and geopolitical interests expansionistically, whether in terms of territorial ambitions or systemically (destruction of the existing European order).
Therefore, Russia will represent a long-term threat to European, and thus also our, security.
In Russia, there was no transition from imperial to post-imperial politics, as in France or the United Kingdom in the 1950s and 1960s. Goals, strategies and means are still defined based on the imperial mentality of the 19th century.
Territorial expansion is the basic measure of success, control of neighboring states the “natural” condition of a great power, as is the creation and maintenance of spheres of influence.
The extent to which Russia can be successful is questionable. The fulfillment of Russian ambitions largely depends on the European and Western ability to resist, secondly on Russia’s ability to promote these interests, and thirdly on the international environment in which these – our and Russian – security and strategic interests meet (the strength of the Ukrainian army, economy and society, the Russian-Chinese alliance, the state of the American presence in Europe).
In this context, two basic questions must be answered. What will Europe do about it? What are the real Russian possibilities, which in turn defines the extent of the necessary European response?
We will start with the second question, that is, Russian capabilities, capabilities, strengths and weaknesses. Rational, without hysteria. Is Russia an existential threat to Central Europe (including Slovakia) or a backward, declining power in post-imperial convulsions? Or both?
The key trends affecting Russia’s situation and strength/weakness are as follows:
The state of the Russian economy
The economy has never been Russia’s strong point, and it is generally true that without strong economic foundations there is no long-term and especially sustainable great power position.
The Russian economy is the ninth largest in the world in terms of performance, it is at the level of Canada, Brazil and a little below Italy.
Russia’s economic performance is less than half of Germany’s, about 12 percent of China’s and eight percent of America’s. Not much for a country that aspires to become a global power.
The Russians are even worse when we look at the structure and long-term sustainability of the economy.
Today, Russia is already a de facto war economy, economic growth is driven by the military industry, not modern industries or services. This model is running out, there is a lack of qualified labor (which went abroad in large numbers at the beginning of the war) and the necessary capital.
Although the regime has demonstrated a high degree of ability to adapt to Western sanctions (it has been preparing for a confrontation with the West for a long time), the sanctions undermine modernization and preserve the economy in a relatively backward state, in addition to increasing Moscow’s dependence on China.
The war only accelerates the overall economic decline of the country compared to the West, Europe, but also China, for example.
Russian military capabilities
Russia is not and will not be able to defeat Ukraine militarily.
