Overview:
Australia’s multi-billion-dollar naval deal with Japan is being seen as a potential turning point in regional defence cooperation, as Tokyo moves to expand arms exports after easing long-standing restrictions. Under the agreement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will supply the Royal Australian Navy with three upgraded Mogami-class frigates as part of an 11-ship program. The deal signals deepening strategic ties between Japan and Australia, with expectations it could pave the way for broader defence partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.
In short:
(ABC-Australia) Australia’s multi-billion-dollar deal with Japan for its future warships could set a template that will help Tokyo rapidly expand defence exports across Asia.
Last weekend, it was announced that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is to supply the Royal Australian Navy with three upgraded Mogami-class frigates.
Days after the announcement, Japan unveiled its biggest overhaul of defence export rules in decades.
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Australia’s multi-billion-dollar deal with Japan for its future warships could set a template that will help Tokyo rapidly expand defence exports across Asia as Tokyo mulls an overhaul of its post-war pacifist constitution.
Last weekend, the federal government announced it had signed a contract with the Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for the first three of the 11 upgraded Mogami-class frigates.
Days after the announcement, Japan loosened decades-old restrictions on defence exports, in a long-anticipated change that will allow it to further ramp up arms sales, with analysts predicting some US allies — including Australia — will increasingly turn to Tokyo for key defence equipment in the face of chaotic and unpredictable behaviour from Washington DC.
Alex Bristow from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said the Mogami could prove to be a critical part of Japan’s strategy to build a network of defence export partnerships, with New Zealand, Indonesia and potentially even India also looking at purchasing or building Mogami frigates.
“It’s possible that the Mogami could become a regional capability — somewhat like the way the US has built a global network of allies and partners to construct and operate the F-35 joint strike fighter,” Dr Bristow said.
“If this happened, Australia is well placed to become a key node in a regional Mogami supply chain.”
The federal government has declared that it wants to build the next eight Mogami frigates in Australia as it expands its shipbuilding facilities at the Henderson precinct in Western Australia.
Defence Minister Richard Marles told the ABC during his visit to Tokyo earlier this month that the government’s “intention” was still to move production to Australia after receiving the third warship from Japan’s production line.
Some key players in the defence industry — as well as some Japanese officials — are not convinced that Australia’s strategic shipbuilder, Austal, will be ready to build the next eight frigates starting next decade, given the project’s complexity and scale.
But Dr Bristow said that no matter what happened with construction, Western Australia could be an “excellent location for a Mogami sustainment hub in the southern Indo-Pacific” largely because it was closer to New Zealand, Indonesia and India.
“Western Australia’s distance from China and the flashpoints of the first island chain is also an advantage,” he said.
“Becoming such a hub might extend the life span and economic benefit of the facilities being constructed in Henderson.”
‘Be prepared for a lot of ups and downs’
The sale of the Mogamis to Australia was made possible under an easing of Japan’s pacifist policies in 2014 to allow the export of defence equipment in certain fields.
The rules have been further eased this week, opening the door to Japan selling lethal weapons and significantly increasing its defence exports.
But Professor Yoko Iwama from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies said there is speculation that Mogami production in Japan is already stretched.
She said there is a need to “rearrange the production capabilities” with partner countries, including industrial hubs such as South Korea.
“We need to sort out with our allies who’s best at what and work out a division of labour,” she explained.
“Japan has not done that much in the past. So there’s a lot of re-thinking and re-learning to do, and it will take some time.”
With prices rising globally, she warned “nothing is going to be easy and we need to be prepared for a lot of ups and downs.”
Dr Bristow said the changes to Japan’s defence export rules would be important to making sure the massive Mogami deal is a success.
“Those changes still help: They make it possible for the ADF to buy a range of finished weapon systems ‘off-the-shelf’ from Japan, which could be particularly useful for getting hold of [a] smaller platform where volume matters, like autonomous systems and missiles,” he said.
Australia and Japan are also rapidly building defence industrial cooperation in other sectors, with Mr Marles and Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi Shinjiro signing the “Mogami Memorandum” to boost industrial collaboration, and agreeing that Japanese personnel can participate in flight tests for the “Ghost Bat” drone conducted in Australia.
‘Number of countries’ expressing interest in Japan’s defence supplies
With protracted wars in Ukraine and Iran straining the United States’s weapons stocks, American allies have been seeking alternatives.
The US has already restricted the supply of ammunition to some countries in the wake of the Middle East conflict.
Mr Koizumi has said a “number of countries” have already approached Tokyo with “various needs” for defence equipment.
“In any case, the government intends to proceed with the transfer of defence equipment after conducting a rigorous review, taking into account the needs of each country, from the perspective of whether it will contribute to improving the deterrence and response capabilities of our ally and like-minded countries, as well as Japan’s security,” he said.
There has also been demand for decommissioned equipment, which would previously have been scrapped.
Representatives from 30 NATO countries recently toured a Japanese naval base and inspected defence technology as part of a recent visit to the country.
Professor Iwama said recent conflicts have highlighted that “modern war-fighting has changed considerably”.
“You need to be able to beat the other side in terms of production quantity as well as quality,” she explained.
“Most Western nations have been concentrating more on quality than quantity, and we are all in for a long ‘re-think’.”
The US concentrating on the Middle East “certainly puts pressure on the allies to speed up their efforts,” she said.
There are reports that the first deal to be struck under Japan’s altered rules could involve the supply of warships to the Philippines, a nation Japan recently joined for military exercises for the first time.
The speculation comes as the president and first lady of the Philippines arrive in Japan for a state visit.
Supply chain considerations required
Japan appears to also be considering the supply chain for an expanded defence industry, with Tokyo looking to make deals with several neighbouring countries for critical minerals.
Earlier this year, China put restrictions on shipping and the supply of rare earth minerals to major Japanese companies and entities involved in the defence industry, saying it was aiming to “curb Japan’s remilitarisation”.
It comes amid heightened tensions between the two countries over the future of Taiwan.
A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said the country is “seriously” concerned about Japan’s recent relaxation of its arms exports restrictions.
“Japan’s recent series of dangerous moves in the military and security fields have shattered the very signboards it holds up for itself — ‘peaceful nation’ and ‘exclusively defence-oriented policy’,” they said.
In the days before Tokyo eased its arms export rules, Chinese warships were being surveilled passing through a Japanese island chain.
It followed a Japanese destroyer going through the Taiwan Strait in what Beijing said was a “deliberate provocation”.
China’s People’s Liberation Army said its ships were going to conduct training in the Western Pacific and it complied “with international law and practice” and was not “target(ing) any specific country or entity”.
But it drew a response from Japan’s defence minister on social media.
“Even as the world’s attention is focused on the Middle East, we do not neglect vigilance and surveillance around Japan,” Shinjirō Koizumi wrote.
