According to political analysts, if an agreement is reached between the United States and Iran, the balance of power in the region will change dramatically. In such a situation, Israel will remain strategically alone and will be in a more complicated situation in the confrontation with Iran. It is in such conditions that the most dangerous scenario – the possibility of using nuclear weapons – is also mentioned. Experts consider it unlikely. This can have serious and irreversible consequences for the entire region.
Political analysts talk about this in Kun.uz’s “Geosiyosat” program.
Will Israel take military action alone if the US-Iran deal is reached?
Shavkat Ikramov: At the beginning of the war, some countries – including Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Egypt – began to express objections to Iran. Some Arab countries have noted that Iran’s strikes on US military bases pose a threat to their territories as well. Experts assessed this situation as an aggressive policy of Iran.
As the situation develops, especially in light of recent events, an important question has arisen: Is Saudi Arabia really friendly towards Iran?! Does he want the war to end and peace in the region, or is he in favor of a drastic solution to the Iranian issue?!
This question did not appear for nothing. In 2025, an agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the field of defense. In fact, Pakistan has been providing military-technical support to Saudi Arabia for many years: it participates in the modernization of the army, it helps in the training of personnel. In such circumstances, at a time when there was an opportunity for negotiations, a step was taken that was sure to displease Iran. Weapons were delivered from Pakistan to Saudi Arabia.
This was especially true of defense systems and missile technology, which was naturally perceived negatively by Iran. European publications are also questioning this situation: was this action done to interfere with the negotiations or is it simply the implementation of existing agreements? Unfortunately, some signals increase the likelihood of interfering with these processes.
Many analyzes today suggest that the US may be forced to withdraw in the near future. Because the probability of a large-scale operation on land is low, its consequences can be very serious. Israel’s options will be limited if the U.S. is driven by domestic political factors, including electoral processes, and leaves Israel alone. It may content itself with mostly symbolic or limited military operations.
At the same time, some military experts also put forward alarming predictions: the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons by Israel to ensure its security and maintain its position in the region is not excluded (Israel has not officially recognized that it has nuclear weapons). Of course, this is the worst case scenario.
Overall, the calculations show that without the US, Israel’s military capabilities are insufficient for a long-term war. Under such conditions, the balance of power for Iran will be relatively even, and Israel will not have a significant advantage. Therefore, experts emphasize the need for international pressure to prevent Israel from taking drastic decisions, especially the use of nuclear weapons.
Fame Rasul: This conflict will not be short-lived. On the contrary, it can be protracted and episodic in nature. There is a high probability that the parties will continue the confrontation without reaching a complete agreement, throwing missiles at each other from time to time.
Iran’s actions against the Arab monarchies have been evaluated not only by experts, but also by the international community. In particular, the resolution of the United Nations Organization and the position of the Gulf and its neighboring countries evaluated this situation as an open aggression. 12 Muslim countries, including Pakistan and Egypt, called these actions an act of aggression.
This is not just about military bases.
Oil and gas infrastructure is also being hit, as the media has shown. In addition, the Iranian side has openly stated that if the attacks continue, they may attack 12 bridges in the Gulf region. These bridges and other facilities, including gas storage facilities and gas liquefaction plants, are considered civil infrastructure. These objects mainly belong to Arab monarchies and are important for the economic system.
Therefore, it is emphasized that the Iranian strikes are not only aimed at military, but also at civilian and economic objects. This was discussed not only by the neighboring countries, but also by the United Nations Organization at the level of a separate resolution.
You can watch the full conversation on YouTube channel “Geosiyosat | Kun.uz”.
