online economy; Nima Nainian, a capital market analyst, predicted the state of the capital market today:
“The market is in a situation where political and geopolitical developments are directly affecting traders’ behavior at an unusual speed.
Last week, the increase in the level of tensions between Iran and the United States affected the market environment and caused the behavior of shareholders to move from analytical to emotional behavior. The market, which was accompanied by buying queues at the beginning of the month, then turned towards selling queues under the influence of the conflict news. At the same time as tensions escalated, discussions about infrastructure were also raised, but there were signs of getting closer to a 14-point peace draft, which has been mentioned and initially approved by the parties.
The level of tensions increased last week and this directly affected the stock market. The psychological atmosphere of the market was greatly inflamed and the shareholders were in a state of uncertainty.
Political developments and the possibility of agreement
In the rest of the week, as we got closer to the end of the week, the threats became more serious, but at the same time, there were news about the draft of the 14-point agreement. It is said that mediations have also been done and there is a short period of time until a possible signing.
The stock market reacted very strongly to this news. The record of shopping queues was broken and the value of transactions reached more than 53 hemats. Almost no significant symbols were seen in the negative range and the market was positive in most industries.
In such a situation, it is difficult to recognize the real value of the shares and the border between the fundamental and non-fundamental shares becomes blurred in the emotional atmosphere.
The state of industries and funds
Food groups, cement, some metals and some other industries were still leading the buying queues. Leverage and equity funds were also accompanied by high demand. On the other hand, gold funds were the only sector that came under selling pressure and faced a 5-6% drop and even a negative bubble.
Market perspective
It seems that the fall of gold funds was largely caused by the emotional behavior of the market. Even assuming a deal is finalized, a sharp drop for gold is unlikely. Overall, gold investors are advised to be more patient. In the stock market, accelerated changes in the portfolio can lead to falling behind the trend.
Also, some leading industries can perform better in the short term, and if the liquidity continues, the market has the capacity to continue the positive trend.”
