Projections by the International Monetary Fund show significant growth in GDP per capita expressed in euros across Europe by 2030, but the rankings do not change significantly when it comes to purchasing power.
Namely, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is one of the most commonly used tools for comparing economies — and in a large part of Europe, the trend is upward. However, the growth of this figure does not always mean that a country is catching up or overtaking others. The rankings change as all economies progress together. A country’s position in the table often gives a more useful picture than the raw numbers themselves.
We analyzed projections from IMF reports for 2025 and 2030, including nominal GDP per capita and purchasing power parity (PPP), which corrects price differences between countries.
EU candidate countries
The last nine places are mostly occupied by the candidate countries for EU membership, with Ukraine, Kosovo and Moldova holding only the bottom of the list, and Bosnia and Herzegovina a step above.
According to GDP, our economy was in 38th place in 2025, and IMF forecasts show that in 2030, we will fall by one position. When it comes to PPP in 2025, we took the same 38th place, and forecasts for 2030 show that there will be no progress, and that we will keep the same position.
Turkey is an exception and according to projections, it should be in 29th place in 2030 — ahead of three full EU members: Bulgaria, Latvia and Greece.
Fifteen countries will maintain the same positions between 2025 and 2030. Greece recorded the biggest drop, falling from 29th to 32nd place, while Cyprus made the biggest jump — from 16th to 13th position.
No other country is expected to move more than three places.
The difference between nominal and PPP rankings also speaks volumes. Malta, Romania, Poland and Turkey rank significantly higher in PPP than in nominal euros — suggesting that their real purchasing power is greater than the nominal figures indicate. On the contrary, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Iceland and Latvia have a weaker PPP ranking compared to the nominal one.
Economist Željko Rička explains to Oslobodjenje.ba that the data collected by the IMF are prepared by relevant international institutions, therefore, there is no more reliable data than this.
“Yes, these are estimates, but their estimates are well informed before they are released to the public. They are aware that with some of their wrong estimates, they would misdirect the relations between the states and even the political situation, that is, they would indirectly influence it,” said Rička.
He added that apparently BiH is at the level of Moldova, Ukraine and Kosovo.
“Thirty years, after everything we went through and which was ugly, when we got the momentum and support from all sides to get out of it all, we didn’t go far. We took very few steps. And what was there to do? In any case, as you remember the New Deal in America or the Marshall Plan in Europe after the end of World War II, we should have had certain development strategies. Today, we have a Growth Plan from Europe. So, the EU prepared and gave us the opportunity, asked us for our views on what it would be the most important thing for us to do. This is how the international community organizes itself and does not have the upper hand. They make offers, possibly consulting services, and so on. We did not respond to any of these things, even after the war. They have given up on us, obviously let’s overcome that basic root of the conflict,” Rička believes.
According to him, another thing is that we ourselves are not working on a development strategy of our own, and again due to political circumstances.
“Each region, each country individually, everyone is working on it, and it is simply an example of how strategic development is encouraged. The question is what the strategy of development of certain segments includes. One of the first things is to decide in which direction we want to go. What do we have as a comparative advantage in our area compared to the countries around us and how would we best position ourselves in that environment. We did not manage to do that either. We were not even able to ensure passage through the borders without obstacles, at least for the sector that we have enough of well developed, and that is transportation. So, we absolutely do not think strategically,” emphasizes Rička.
He points out that he follows the strategies of our institutions, he emphasizes that they all seem to be beginners, without any well thought-out ideas and without serious foundations in research.
“Every year we should have an evaluation of the achievements from our strategic plan, then an action plan for the following year. This is a methodology that has been known for a long time and is present everywhere. We do something about it, but very superficially. Feel free to look at any page of any ministry, be it the Federation of BiH or the Republika Srpska, we are all roughly the same. So, we do not have specific goals at all – what we can develop and what we are good at. I repeat, now that they have given us the Growth Plan, they approached it with their economic logic – here’s your money, calm down, do something, then you’ll forget what happened. We still don’t like each other, and I think that’s the main problem why we’re where we are and we’ll stay there until we change it,” said professor Rička categorically.
Ireland takes over the top spot from Luxembourg
Among the 41 European countries — including EU members, candidate countries, EFTA members and the United Kingdom — Ireland is expected to top the GDP per capita PPP list by 2030, overtaking Luxembourg, which leads in 2025. This figure comes with an important caveat though. Irish GDP is notorious for being heavily skewed by the large presence of multinationals.
Norway, Switzerland and Denmark are expected to round out the top five, with their positions remaining stable between 2025 and 2030. Among the five largest European economies, Germany is ranked best in 12th place, followed by France (15th) and the United Kingdom (16th). Italy is in 18th place, while Spain is the lowest ranked among them, in 22nd position.
Huge differences at the top
At the top of the table, the differences are pronounced. Ireland and Luxembourg are far behind, with projected GDP per capita of $182,000 (about 304,000 KM) and $167,000 (about 279,000 KM). Norway and Switzerland follow, and both should exceed 115,000 dollars (about 192,000 KM) by 2030.
If Ireland and Luxembourg are excluded, the differences within the EU still remain large. Denmark leads the remaining group with 100,000 dollars (about 167,000 KM), which is almost twice as much as Greece with 54,000 dollars (about 90,000 KM) — the lowest amount among EU members.
Among major economies, Germany has the highest purchasing power at $86,000 (about 143,000 KM), while Spain has the weakest at $66,000 (about 110,000 KM) — a difference of approximately 31 percent.
Outside the EU, the picture is even sharper. Almost all candidate countries should stay below $50,000 (about 83,000 KM), and several of them significantly below that, with amounts below $30,000 (about 50,000 KM) — about half the Greek level.
