With less than three months until the regional and municipal elections, those who are undecided (16.3%) and those who are in favor of voting blank or invalid (15.3) in the elections for the mayor of Lima make up almost a third (31.6%) of the electorate. And their percentages, separately, exceed the three best-placed candidates for the capital seat.
According to the latest survey by Datum International for Commerce, Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) with 12.3%, Francis Allison (Avanza País) with 11.3% and Daniel Urresti (Vamos Perú) with 10.3% lead the voting intention ahead of the electoral process on Sunday, October 4 for the Municipality of Lima.
According to the opinion study, the current mayor of Surco and former Minister of Housing has greater support in the districts of central Lima with 15.2%, while the mayor of Magdalena has 21.5% in the same area. The former head of the Interior has 15.5% in the south of the capital.
Behind them are the doctor Luis Rubio (Renovación Popular) with 7.3%; the former mayor of Lima Ricardo Belmont (Partido Cívico Obras) with 7.3%; and the outgoing congresswoman Susel Paredes (Now Nación) with 6.8%.
In addition, the former mayor of San Borja and former Minister of Health Alberto Tejada (Popular Action) follows them with 3% of the preferences.
Samuel Daza, current mayor of Ancón and Fuerza Popular candidate for the municipal seat of Lima, registers 1.8%. This contrasts with the 63.51% of valid votes obtained by the elected President of the Republic, Keiko Fujimori, from the same party, in the second round against Congressman Roberto Sánchez (Together for Peru).
71% of those surveyed considered that the next mayor of Lima should make combating citizen insecurity a priority.
They also indicated that the new mayor has to focus on improving public transportation (9%), executing infrastructure works (8%), improving municipal management (3%), improving public cleaning (2%), recovering public spaces and green areas (2%), and ordering outpatient commerce (1%), among others.
Furthermore, 64% indicated that among the candidates for mayor of Lima there are good options to choose from, while 30% did not. And 6% don’t know.
Read also: The Peruvian authorities who close the political cycle from clandestinity
On the other hand, the mayor of Lima, Renzo Reggiardo, is approved by 44% of the city, while 43% do not support him. And 13% don’t know.
Reggiardo has been mayor of the capital since October 21 of last year, after the resignation of Rafael López Aliaga to run for the Presidency of the Republic through Popular Renewal.
Political analyst Luis Benavente stated that the high level of undecided people and people contemplating voting blank or null does not surprise him, because a standard of Peruvian politics is that people decide in the end. He added that to this we must add that there are citizens who change their vote with the elections close.
In dialogue with El Comercio, he also said that the fact that the best positioned candidates for mayor of Lima do not exceed 12% is due to fragmentation, remembering that there are 22 applicants. However, he indicated there are competitive cadres, such as Bruce, who has been a minister, congressman and district mayor; Allison, who has been mayor of Magdalena multiple times, and Urresti, former head of the Interior.
“Added to this are other candidates who have a specific weight and who are not far away, such as Belmont, who had a certain impact in the presidential elections despite his worn image, Susel Paredes, who has a direct style, and Alberto Tejada, who is recognized for his municipal management in San Borja,” he said.
The director of Vox Populi also indicated that there are other candidates who represent parties that were protagonists in the presidential elections: Luis Rubio (Popular Renovation), whom the former mayor of Lima Rafael López Aliaga promotes; Oswaldo Vásquez, mayor of Chosica, who is from Together for Peru; and Samuel Daza (Fuerza Popular), current mayor of Ancón.
“Daza has the support of Keiko Fujimori, who will be in her first months as president (when the municipal campaign takes place). Lima has always been adverse to Fujimorism. In the nineties, Alberto Fujimori never could in Lima. It is a challenge for Keiko Fujimori, especially now that Lima supported her (in the second round),” he remarked.
Benavente stressed that, unlike other municipal elections, this one is “highly competitive.” “I don’t remember such a competitive election, and with so many figures with electoral weight,” he said.
Besides…
A tight competition for the municipal seat
By Urpi Torrado, CEO of Datum International
Unlike the presidential election, the campaign for mayor of Lima seems to begin with a more competitive scenario and, above all, with an offer that generates greater acceptance among voters. Although there are 22 candidates contesting the metropolitan municipality, compared to the 36 who participated in the presidential election, Lima residents show a more favorable perception of the available alternatives. While three months before the presidential election 48% of Peruvians stated that there were no good options to choose from, in the municipal election that percentage is reduced to 30%.
The contrast makes it clear that a greater number of candidates does not guarantee a better electoral offer. The quality of the options perceived by citizens depends less on the number of applicants than on their ability to generate trust, represent the concerns of the population and differentiate themselves from the rest.
This perception is also reflected in the level of indecision. Although 31.6% of Lima residents have not yet defined their vote, the figure is considerably lower than that registered in the presidential election for a similar moment in the process. Furthermore, the municipal campaign has just begun. Until now, public attention has been focused on the presidential election. The largest pocket of undecided people is in East Lima, the most populated area of the capital, which will probably end up being decisive in the final result.
Voting intention also shows open competition. A first group, made up of Carlos Bruce, Francis Allison and Daniel Urresti, disputes the leadership within a statistical tie. A second group, made up of Luis Rubio, Ricardo Belmont and Susel Paredes, appears a few points behind, although that distance loses relevance when the margin of error of the survey is considered. This means that the competition is much closer than the ranking positions suggest.
The campaign has just begun, but expectations are already defined. Although the people of Lima recognize that citizen security is a responsibility shared with other institutions, they hope that the next mayor will assume a leading role in the fight against crime.
