Madrid/this friday two weeks are over of the alleged ultimatum from the United States to Cuba to release high-profile political prisoners as a gesture of goodwill prior to continuing negotiations. If the claim is true, the answer is no. If it’s not, too.
This Thursday, the island’s ambassador to the UN, Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, said in a Associated Press interview that internal issues related to the detainees “are not on the negotiating table.” “We have our legal system, like here in the United States they have theirs. So we must respect the internal affairs of both,” he alleged.
The official did not deny or confirm the alleged demand, but he did speak out regarding one of Washington’s demands, which in the talks has asked to resolve the confiscations of the 1960s through some compensation. Soberón returned to an idea that had already been advanced a month ago by the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío: they are willing to reach an agreement if it is accompanied by an economic counterpart for the US embargo against Cuba.
“There is not only this claim, but also the claim on our part because the embargo has an economic impact. It is a two-way street”
“There is not only this claim, but also the claim on our part because the embargo has an economic impact. It is a two-way street,” he stressed.
Soberón expressed confidence that a “new approach” will be achieved in relations between both countries, but said that the country remains on alert, in light of what happened in the Middle East or Venezuela, where talks were interrupted to move on to a US attack. “We are not naive. We prepare for all scenarios. And I reiterate: our first option – what we really want – is a successful dialogue with the United States Government,” but, if not, “we are ready to respond.” he added.
In a meeting between both countries held in Havana on April 10, according to leaks to the American press, these matters were discussed, in addition to the possibility of improvements for foreign investment and the introduction of internet on the Island through Starlink. The appointment included a private meeting between a senior official from Donald Trump’s Administration and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of the former president, officially confirmed by Washington.
This conversation delves into the perception that there is a governmental channel and a more personal channel with the Castros, which has been interpreted as an intention of the dynasty to perpetuate itself or preserve certain privileges by sacrificing the Government – and the person – of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
This fear is reflected in the words of historian Carlos Eire, one of the three writers recruited by the prestigious American magazine time for him special dedicated to Cuba that stars on its legendary cover. For the occasion, Cuban-American artist Edel Rodríguez has designed a cover with a row of falling dominoes, the last of them with the Cuban flag. Before the Fallis the title, while the subtitle reads Cuba Awaits Trump’s Endgame.
The special includes three analyses. One of them, the one from Eirereflects – as could not be otherwise in a Cuban who left the Island during Operation Pedro Pan – the author’s hope for a “spring in Havana.” The historian reviews how the alliances, first with the USSR and then with Venezuela, have contributed to making Cuba an unproductive state – he reviews the figures – and a dependent state that has now been left without its last support. “The time has come,” he says.
His greatest fear, however, is that Trump will decide for Cuba something similar to what he did with Venezuela, and he remembers that just before attacking Iran he announced that there could be a “friendly takeover.” “In business jargon, a friendly acquisition is any merger or acquisition in which the management of a company voluntarily allows its absorption into another company,” he states. Hence the fear that hope will end in “some cosmetic changes (for the regime), such as changing their military uniforms for Armani suits, or building casinos for tourists and Vietnamese-style workshops for Cuban workers.”
Eire hopes that there will be “a total regime change, followed by a transition that (leads) to genuine freedom for the Cuban people,” or “it will not be a great day and an authentic resurrection.”
Also participating in the special is ubiquitous author Leonardo Padurawho writes an article titled In Cuba: To be or not to be. The writer speaks of a life of hardship that already existed on the Island before the oil blockade and that has now reached its zenith. “With each passing day, it is increasingly clear that life is becoming unbearably complicated for the island’s inhabitants, and there is a complete disconnection between the official and popular discourse,” argues Padura, who reproaches not only that renewable energy was not prioritized long ago – instead of hotels – and that the official position of the Government is to resist indefinitely.
“Some analysts suggest that ‘indefinitely’ only needs to stretch until the US midterm elections (…). But what happens if, before that point arrives, exhausted and desperate people take to the streets in protest? The government’s response would almost certainly be severe,” he fears. While all this is being resolved, he laments, the people continue to suffer.
“The closest analogue is the social market economy in the European tradition: a framework that rejects the poor alternatives of an economy controlled by an all-powerful state and an economy abandoned entirely to market forces.”
He Economist Ricardo Torres signs a text titled What Cuba needs, focused on two main areas: economic and political opening. The expert reviews his childhood on the Island – during the 80s – and remembers that there were hardships, but the basic social contract was maintained. “We had public education and health services of relatively high quality for a developing nation,” something that has disappeared since the 1990s, he emphasizes.
In this sense, he considers, Cuba needs to evolve with social democratic Europe as a reference. “An economic model that combines freedom, social protection, competition and public purpose. The closest analogue is the social market economy in the European tradition: a framework that rejects the poor alternatives of an economy controlled by an all-powerful State and an economy completely abandoned to market forces,” he believes.
The political issue is more complicated. In Cuba, society was educated, he maintains, while blind obedience was asked: two incompatible things. Now “it needs a political transformation not only to expand individual freedom, but to remake public life itself. It needs leaders capable of diagnosing problems honestly, designing policy competently, and articulating a new national horizon.”
It also requires, he considers, support from the international community and, of course, from an exile that cannot only be sources of remittances or passive spectators. “Cuba needs to change not because a foreign power demands it, but because its citizens deserve better,” he concludes.
