After a weak start to the yearin which the real estate market fully felt the increase in interest rates on mortgage loans -as of the second half of 2025-, March took a turn that surprised even the players in the sector.
According to the College of Notaries of the City of Buenos Aires, In the third month of the year, 5,590 deeds of sale were signeda 17.8% more than in March 2025 and a jump of 56.7% compared to February (3567 writings).
The data, apparently positive, has nuances. Growth breaks a streak of four consecutive months of decline and positions March as the sixth best historical record for that month, although still far from 2018 levelsin the midst of the UVA credit boom.
He Marcos Galperin himself, creator of Mercado Librewas surprised by the data and in his President Javier Milei reposted his publication.
Furthermore, it is important to clarify that January and February are seasonal months in which the number of purchase and sale operations tends to decrease.regardless of the year, but the fact that draws attention is that even though the acts increased, The mortgage credit situation was not the same. Which shows that this year-on-year increase in property purchases It was done mainly with people who had their own capital -cash-.
In numbers, The total amount operated reached $902,972 millionwith a year-on-year increase of 46%. On average, Each operation was worth $161.5 millionequivalent to US$113,802which implies a 4.1% drop in dollars. That is to say, More properties are sold, but cheaper in foreign currency. In the market they assure that operations are taking place at two speeds: the lowest tickets are acquired through mortgage credit and the highest ones are purchased with cash.
The data that stresses the reading is that of mortgages. In March, 834 deeds were registered with creditwhich represents a drop of 15.9% year-on-year, but an increase compared to the previous month (when 592 acts were formalized). Today, they barely explain 14.9% of total operations and it is expected to continue the same in the coming months. But the positive thing is that it did not fall as much as in other times.
That’s where the “contradiction” appears.: he market grows in volume, but without the main engine that historically multiplies it. “The good news is that, although credit went down, it did not collapse like in other years when it was punctured,” they say from the sector.
“We recover the year-on-year increase after four months with some declines. Now you have to see the dynamics of credit“, summarized Magdalena Tato, president of the College of Notaries. And added a key point: “Credit not only promotes operations, it also allows access to housing. It is a stimulus that some banks have lowered rates, but there is a lot to create in that sense”
The impact is not minor. In the sector they estimate that For each mortgage, up to 2.5 operations are generated additional. Without this spillover effect, growth is limited. Hence the recent drop in loan rates -starting at the beginning of this year- brings a little green light to the mortgage sectorwhich the market expects to be reflected in the coming months.
The historical comparison makes the change of scenario evident. In March 2018 (at the height of the UVA boom), more than 2,200 mortgages had been registered, 166% more than today. That push is what explains the peaks in activity back then.
Today, however, The market relies more on buyers with liquidity or access to their own dollars. According to Soledad Balayán, owner of Maure Inmobiliaria, this responds to a perception of opportunity: “There is a segment that understands that properties are at a good price and is encouraged to buy.”
The exchange rate plays a silent but determining role. A stable and even appreciated dollar tends to improve purchasing power in real terms. However, this effect is not enough to replace credit.
Dan Obetko, premium residential manager at Interwin, validates this trend and says they are seeing a higher level of inquiries than last year. “As prices are stable, operations are closed. What is well priced, well located and published with prices that the market validates, has a good level of inquiries and reservations,” he assures.
In the sector there is consensus that the data March should be read with caution. For Fabián Achával, economist and owner of the homonymous real estate company, the jump responds more to a drag effect than to a structural change: “It is a month of recovery for operations that were not carried out in January and February. The market is normalizing a little after a bad first two months”.
The beginning of 2026 was atypical: the first two months showed a drop in activity without the classic trigger of a currency or electoral crisis. That may have generated a pent-up demand that ended up overturning in March.
In addition, another relevant piece of information appears: The average ticket in dollars continues to declinesuggesting that the market is moving towards properties of lower value or with greater negotiation room. Although the credit cancellation data does not say this.
The first quarter closes with a “technical tie” compared to 2025with some 12,500 accumulated operations. But the true reflection of the market will come in the coming months: from April, the year-on-year comparison will be against a period with a greater volume of credits. “It is a good piece of information that gives peace of mind that the year did not start badly”adds Achával.
In that context, the behavior of rates will be key. Some entities began to cut them, but the system is still far from consolidating a robust offer.
The marketfor now, shows an ambiguous postcard: more writings, but with less credit; more movement, but with lower tickets. The market’s needle will be set in the coming months; In particular, April will reflect whether the March data has to do only with operations that were carried over from the first two months of the year or with a more marked rearrangement of the market.
Just like what happened in the city of Buenos Aires, In the Province there was also an increase in deeds both year-on-year and monthlyalthough in this case the increase was less significant.
During March 11,116 real estate sales were registered, 45% more than in February (7655)according to the monthly survey carried out by the Buenos Aires College of Notaries. In the year-on-year comparison, the increase was 8%, compared to the same month of 2025when 10,317 operations were completed. Furthermore, it is highlighted that it was the best March since 2018.
In the case of transactions carried out with mortgage, the situation was also similar to that of CABA. In March there were 1,509 events, 10% less than in March 2025. Compared to February, meanwhile, there was an increase of 44%.
“The numbers for this first quarter are positive but the behavior of the market in the different months does not yet allow us to see what the annual trend will be,” analyzed Guillermo Longhi, president of the school. Furthermore, he added: “It is important to highlight that for the upward trend to consolidate, it is essential to encourage the mortgage credit market.”
But from the market they make a different reading. “It is important to note that despite the increase in March, we are still 25% below the volume operated in 2018,” stated Maximiliano D’Aria, director of D’Aria Propiedades, and exemplifies it: “In that year, with a free dollar of $20.30, approximately US$1.1 billion was operated; while this March, having practically equaled the deeds, the volume operated reached only US$790 million (with a dollar of $1400).” That is, the quantity increased, but not the volume.
Added to this diagnosis is another structural factor: writing statistics show only a part of the market. “The other important analysis is that only a sample of the deeded units is being taken, which are the ones that are registered and for which there is data. The ventures or units under construction are very determining factors in the real estate market.where they are estimated between 25,000 and 30,000 units per year,” explained D’Aria. In that sense, made a clear difference: “What has definitely been reactivated is the used segment (the deed), as seen in March 2026, But the same reactivation is not being seen in the construction market, where absorption is slower.”.
