Over the past month, banks have significantly increased rates on long-term deposits. In this way, they strive to maintain citizens’ interest in long-term investments. It is important for banks to secure sources of long-term funds, as consumer lending terms are also lengthening. However, experts note that so far the rates on deposits for three years are raised mainly by small banks and under programs with fairly strict conditions.
Since the last meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate on March 20, average rates on long-term deposits (for a period of three years) have increased, as follows from the data of the Financial Services index. The index itself is calculated based on deposit rates of the twenty largest banks by volume of their retail deposit portfolio.
- The average yield on three-year deposits increased the most – by 0.21 percentage points (pp), to 11% per annum.
- At the same time, average rates on deposits for one and a half and two years remained at the same level – about 11.4% and 11.2% per annum, respectively.
- At the same time, the profitability of short-term deposits (for 3, 6 and 12 months) continued to decline steadily, reaching 12.3–13.7% per annum. On average, for these deposits over the month it dropped by 0.4 percentage points, and since the beginning of the year – by 1.4 percentage points.
When setting the return on deposits, banks focus on several factors. Valery Piven, head of the ACRA financial institutions ratings group, considers the current level of the key rate and expectations for its change to be the main ones. In February, the Central Bank updated its forecast for the average value of the key rate for three years ahead. For 2026, the average key value is expected to be in the range of 13.5–14.5%, for 2027 – 8–9% (an increase from 7.5–8.5% in the October forecast), for 2028 – 7.5–8.5%. In March, the regulator already reduced the rate to 15%, and at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on April 24, analysts expect a continuation – a reduction to 14.5%.
When attracting long-term deposits, banks adhere to a more cautious policy. According to Anton Pavlov, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank, this is required to “prevent interest rate risks when the cost of money raised from the market turns out to be higher than the current conditions at the time of closing deposits.” Taking into account the dynamics of the key rate and the Central Bank’s forecast, by the end of the year it could drop to 13%, and by mid-2027 it will be 10-11%, Mr. Pavlov believes. However, for a longer period, attracting “at such a percentage may already be a risky strategy,” he believes.
Maintaining or even increasing the profitability of long-term deposits may indicate the banks’ desire to maintain customer loyalty and attract new ones.
This is also an opportunity to “fix long-term sources of funding,” says Sofya Ostapenko, senior analyst at the NKR rating agency. Banks’ need for them today is only increasing “due to the lengthening of average issuance periods for most retail loan products,” says Konstantin Borodulin, Managing Director of NRA Financial Institution Ratings. According to NBKI, in February 2026, compared to January, the average term increased in the segments of cash loans and car loans.
At the same time, not all market participants show a real increase in rates on long-term deposits. “First of all, the changes are noticeable in the lines of small regional banks; among large ones there are only isolated cases,” points out Inna Soldatenkova, head of expert analytics at the financial marketplace Banki.ru. Moreover, as Yuri Belikov, managing director of the Expert RA rating agency, notes, this mainly concerns “products with the most stringent conditions.” Or, profitability is adjusted upward due to promotional rates and partner offers, adds Inna Soldatenkova.
However, in the near future, experts and market participants expect a reduction in rates for all categories of deposits. Although, according to Yuri Belikov, it “will not be fast.” Firstly, the process will be slowed down by a slow decrease in the key rate, and secondly, “in a market where rates are being massively reduced, competition for term funding is intensifying,” the expert points out. In addition, as Anton Pavlov notes, “with the restoration of lending, the dynamics of reducing deposit rates may slow down.”
