Like Artemis II on its way to the dark side of the moon, The Argentine economy is advancing but without yet giving clear signals. There is no paralysis, although the recovery that many expected at this time of the year is not perceived either. It is an economy in transit, crossing an area of darkness in the hope of recovering the signal. Projections point to April as the month in which some of these indicators could begin to move in the right direction. The Government’s expectations are placed on it. “We know that these last few months have been hard,” the president, Javier Milei, wrote on the X network this Thursday. But the results are visible: the economy is beginning to take off strongly.“he said, always hyperbolic.
Although it does not state it publicly, the economic team is appealing to all its pragmatism to achieve it. Not only does it buy dollars to prevent the peso from continuing to appreciate, as the vice minister, José Luis Daza, recognized, but it has been a few weeks since a drop in interest rates is validated, with the hope that, once the credit default has been cleared -which according to 1816 in February continued to rise and stood at 11.2% for families, the highest value since 2004-, the engine of the financial sector is fully turned on again. Thus, the rate of current account advances, which in January was on average 54.18%, rose to 47.3% in March, while the rates of fixed terms (the fuel for credits) stood at 24% this week versus 27.1% just a month ago, according to data from the Central Bank (BCRA). The entity chaired by Santiago Bausili reduced the banks’ cash requirements – reserve requirements – in the process and still has room to continue doing so. Banks recognize that they continue to be extremely selective – or cautious – when it comes to granting new loans, but some believe that the worst could be behind us.
“In January and February, the BCRA injected pesos when it bought dollars, but the Treasury took all the pesos that the BCRA released to later buy the dollars it needed to cover maturities,” explains an economist who follows the official numbers in detail. But, Since March, the Central Bank has injected pesos when it buys reserves, and the Treasury has not fully absorbed them. And this remonetization policy will continue to occur this month because there is also room, because the dollar remains stable,” he says, on the condition of not being identified. (Libertarians share a merit with Kirchnerism: they raised the cost of speaking in public so much that very few now dare to take it on).
The BCRA also began to accelerate more heterodox projects to improve the cost of credit. One of the ideas they are working on, they confirm, is the development of a secondary market for credit card coupons. In recent days there have been meetings with banking chambers to advance along this line. Today, a business that receives payment in card installments can only discount those coupons with the acquiring companies – such as Payway, Fiserv or Meli, among others, which are the ones that provide the terminal – but the idea is that a market can be created in which other players participate and, in this way, the financing rate of businesses can improve.
There are several sales transactions of companies that hope that, with an improvement in consumption, their offers will also improve. This is not only the case of the French company Carrefour, which slowed down its negotiations after interested parties did not offer what it expected. The consulting firm Quantum Finance, meanwhile, has Paramount’s mandate to sell the Showcase cinemas and the Showcenter properties, a transaction that is still in process.
Time trial
In addition to lowering the cost of credit, the Economy seeks to accelerate the recovery of industries that have been ironed for months and that are key to job creation. Hence the rush now to launch new route concessions. To the 9,000 kilometers that are in the concession process, Minister Luis Caputo announced that they plan to add another 12,000 additional kilometers. So far, construction data is not encouraging. The Indec reported that, in February, it had decreased 1.3% monthly seasonally adjusted, and 0.7% against the same month of the previous year. There is some hope that in March the numbers will be somewhat better. At least, cement shipments grew 8.6% seasonally adjusted last month after two months – January and February – of decline.
The Government also demonstrated that it is willing to do some Keynesianism when reality warrants it.. The decision to postpone until May the increase in the fuel tax to compensate for the increase in the international price of a barrel of crude oil as a result of the war with Iran is an example of this. But there is little fiscal space for now to take more measures of this type, which will help oxygenate the economy. Collection is stagnant and not only for the national Treasury, but also for the provinces and municipalities. Maintaining the fiscal surplus is, at this point, a juggling exercise: the delays in payments to PAMI and in transportation subsidies – with the direct impact that this has on buses in the Metropolitan area – show that the Government is still up in the air, but with several plates spinning at the same time.
The hope is that as the soybean crop starts to come in, the numbers will improve somewhat. The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) carried out by the BCRA also foresees a gradual deceleration of inflation for Aprilas the economy finishes digesting the impact of the exchange rate jump in the second half of 2025, and the increases in meat and fuel prices, in addition to the seasonal increases that are typical of March (as is the case of education). The market, according to the REM published this week, expects monthly price variations of 2.6% and 2.3% for April and May, respectively, and that inflation will continue with a downward trend.
The financial outlook, in turn, improved during the week, after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, showed a desire to seek a truce in the war conflict with Iran. The most relevant indicator, that of country risk, was once again around 570 basis points. If we continue in this direction, the window could be reopened for Argentina to once again access the international debt market. The Government has decided for now that it does not plan to go down this path, but it is still another tool that can be used if needed.
“I feel as if Argentina were in the middle of the river,” explained a businessman in an industry that today is not one of the most favored. We are rowing, tired, I don’t even know what is on the other shore. But at least the feeling is that I’m still rowing. What I do know is that I’m not going back.“, he said, but then clarified: “I need to see less shouting and more calm, in all of this. It is not an era of change, but a change of era. It does not add up to leadership that exacerbates anxiety in times of uncertainty. “I would bet on more supportive, more human leadership,” he wished.
President Milei for now chooses to blame the press for his ills. It is curious that, after it emerged that Russia would have financed a disinformation campaign To weaken the libertarian management, the Government has decided to suspend the credentials of some of the media involved, but at no time has it called the Russian ambassador in Argentina for consultation in search of explanations. (At least, neither the Government nor the Foreign Ministry acknowledged having done so, when asked by THE NATION). After all, last September, the Russian government had done so with the Argentine ambassador in that country, Enrique Ignacio Ferrer Vieyra, after the Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, accused Vladimir Putin’s administration of espionage at the height of the Andis cause.
When Artemis II left the dark side of the moon, the signal returned on its own. In the Argentine economy, it remains to be seen if April will bring the promised numbers. If not, it will probably be the press that explains why, even if the Government does not like to read it.
