Ankara “smiles” at Yerevan, but listens to Baku

From the border it side: x:of chaos window?, or new pressures start. TRIP, “corridorwere» expectations, old bets

Mirzoyan optimism, of Ankara careful the response

The process of normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations is one of the most frequently discussed diplomatic directions by the government. Despite numerous meetings, negotiations of special representatives, studies of border infrastructures and gradual activation of economic contacts, the process remains incomplete.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Ararat Mirzoyan, was optimistic again the other day when he mentioned that it is possible to achieve a complete settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations in the near future.

Presenting the activities of the foreign policy department in the National Assembly, Mirzoyan noted that the dialogue with Turkey continued, the meetings of the working group created for the purpose of restarting the Gyumri-Kars railway took place, as well as many other contacts. According to his assessment, tangible progress is recorded at each stage, and there are reasons to express confidence that it will be possible to achieve a complete settlement of relations in the near future.

His mention was also of particular importance that today there is already direct trade between Armenia and Turkey in the sense of customs, although the physical movement of goods continues to be carried out through the territory of third countries. In other words, it was shown that some elements of economic interaction already exist even under the conditions of a closed border.

However, almost immediately after Mirzoyan’s statement, official Ankara’s reaction was remarkable. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced after the tripartite meeting in Istanbul that Turkey expects the signing of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as possible and will continue the dialogue with Armenia in coordination with Azerbaijan.

This formulation is the most important political impulse. If Armenia tries to present the Armenian-Turkish settlement as a separate process, then Turkey once again emphasizes that they continue to consider this process closely related to the Azerbaijani direction. In other words, Ankara actually signaled that the complete regulation of relations with Armenia is not separate from the regulation of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

Obviously, this is where the difference between Mirzoyan’s and Fidan’s statements can be seen. Yerevan talks about the possibility of the upcoming settlement, while Ankara talks about the need for a peace treaty and the continuation of a coordinated policy with Azerbaijan. This means that the Turkish side does not want to completely get rid of the Baku factor, moreover, it has never had such an intention and does not have it now.

of Armenia from elections after Ankara see? is new opportunityin

After the parliamentary elections held in Armenia, the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey also contained remarkable messages. The Foreign Ministry of Turkey announced that it is happy for the peaceful and calm conduct of the elections and hopes that conditions will be created in the post-election period, which will enable the signing of the final peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

At first glance, this can be perceived as an ordinary diplomatic statement, but its content is more profound. First of all, Turkey notes that the election results are legitimate and acceptable to Ankara. Secondly, they hint that a new political uncertainty has not been created in Armenia, therefore the negotiation process can continue with the same partners.

In fact, it can be noted that Ankara considers the situation when the current political force remains in power to be more predictable. It is important for Turkey to have a partner whose political approaches are known and with whom a dialogue has been going on for several years, in line with the expectations of Baku and Ankara.

However, in the same statement, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty is not the settlement of relations between Armenia and Turkey. This once again shows that in Turkey’s strategic calculations, the opening of the border with Armenia and the establishment of diplomatic relations continue to be considered in the context of the processes with Azerbaijan.

Hakan Fidan’s statement in a clear and understandable language shows a clearer picture of the situation. He noted that “Azerbaijan’s well-founded concerns must be resolved.” This wording in diplomatic language means that Turkey continues to defend Azerbaijan’s negotiation positions and is not going to ignore Baku’s demands, even in parallel with the promotion of Armenian-Turkish relations.

Therefore, it is also not possible to predict or claim that Turkey is ready to immediately and unconditionally open the border just because elections were held in Armenia, as a result of which the “Civil Agreement” will remain in power. Ankara wants to see a resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan process, at least on terms acceptable to Baku.

Istanbulian tripartite contacts, TRIPPin: around reviews

The tripartite meetings of the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia held in Istanbul the other day also provide important insights into regional developments.

During the meetings, the Middle Corridor, Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, regional connectivity and the TRIPP project were widely discussed. According to the Azerbaijani side, the importance of “Zangezur Corridor” was also emphasized during the discussions.

In other words, the term “Zangezur Corridor” does not exist in the documents signed in Washington. in them, TRIPP or “Trump’s path” are recorded, no extraterritorial corridor regime is planned in the territory of Armenia. Despite this, Baku and Turkish circles continue to use the phrase “Zangezur Corridor”. This is not an accident. Azerbaijan is trying to maintain the agenda in the informational and political field, according to which communication through the territory of Armenia should receive a special status.

In the background of TRIPP discussions, the development of the same term can be considered as an attempt to present the new communication projects with the preferred interpretation of Azerbaijan. Therefore, not only the content of the documents to be signed is important for Armenia, but also the political and informational environment formed around them, the diplomatic work of official Yerevan.

Regional communications, dangers and: possibilities

During the Istanbul meetings, special attention was also paid to the Middle Corridor, the Southern Gas Corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the growing strategic importance of the South Caucasus. The representatives of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia emphasized that the region is turning into the most important transit hub connecting Europe and Asia.

These statements show that the three countries strive to form an integrated transport and energy system, the core of which is the infrastructure under their control. This is both an opportunity and a challenge for Armenia.

It is an opportunity in the sense that under conditions of regional peace, Armenia can join new communication projects, open the border with Turkey, restart the Gyumri-Kars railway and become a participant in new economic ties.

However, the danger is that the subject of communications can also be used to form tools of political pressure. If “TRIPP” or other projects are later tried to be presented as a modified version of “Zangezur Corridor”, Armenia may come under new political and diplomatic pressures, and our country may face new security challenges and threats.

In other words, the main problem for Armenia is not only the opening of communications, but the clear fixing of their legal and political borders, with full protection of Armenia’s sovereignty.

Thus, although there is some movement in the process of regulating relations between Armenia and Turkey, it is still too early to talk about an inevitable and quick resolution. Ararat Mirzoyan’s optimism shows that official Yerevan hopes for progress based on dialogue. However, the statements of Hakan Fidan and the Turkish Foreign Ministry prove that Ankara continues to consider the Armenian-Turkish process as interconnected with Azerbaijani demands.

After the parliamentary elections in Armenia, Turkey certainly got a more predictable negotiation environment. The statements of the Turkish side do not yet show that they are ready for the settlement of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey without the final settlement of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan or at least meeting the main expectations of Baku.

Ankara and Baku continue to systematically promote their own vision of regional connectivity, but on the other hand, the TRIPP discussions and the continuous use of the term “Zangezur Corridor” prove that Baku will not give up its political goals.

Therefore, the main issue for Armenia in the coming months will be not only the settlement of Armenia-Turkey relations, but under what conditions and within the framework of what regional architecture that settlement will take place. The opening of the border itself can become an important achievement, but its real value will depend on whether Armenia will be able to carry out this process in the conditions of maintaining its own sovereignty, security interests and long-term regional role.

Emma GABRIELIAN

“Aravot” daily newspaper
11.06.2026