With nostalgically painted golden-maned horses, French chanson echoing as it spins in circles, the Carrousel de Saint-Pierre, next to the adored Sacre Coeur Basilica, is a sovereign favorite among tourists in Paris.
But recently, as I watched the carousel spin to those romantic French tunes, more than anything else, it reminded me of Brexit.
It has been ten years since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.
Almost instantly, from the EU’s perspective, the UK collapsed, plunging into a multi-year political crisis as the country divided, fought and went round and round – not unlike a painted merry-go-round.
And now, here we are again.
Seven British prime ministers in the decade since the Brexit vote – since Sir Keir Starmer resigned on Monday.
And the fraught – seemingly circular – debate about the EU: to what extent the UK needs to get closer to Brussels in economic terms – and how it has returned to the British domestic political agenda, launched by Starmer’s Labor government.
Shocked by the social and political implosion following Britain’s vote to leave (the British parliament has traditionally been seen as the most stable and respected in the European Union), EU partners say they have meanwhile become accustomed to the rollercoaster of modern British politics over the decade.
Honestly, if you look at the big EU players France and Germany, their domestic political scene could hardly be described as calm seas either.
But will Britain’s political instability derail new negotiations with the EU, launched by Starmer, in a self-proclaimed bid to cut post-Brexit red tape and boost Britain’s ailing economy?
Brussels assumes these talks will continue under his successor, although it said on Monday it was considering whether to go ahead with a summit planned with Starmer’s government at the end of July.
Michel Barnier was the EU’s chief negotiator during the years of often bitter Brexit negotiations.
These days, he is still a big name in French politics – a center-right lawmaker who was briefly prime minister two years ago and is expected to enter the ring in the country’s upcoming presidential election.
I met with Barnier in his cramped office next to the French parliament.
His position is essentially that the EU must accept the outstretched hand of whoever the UK puts on the dance floor to represent it.
“We have to deal with this situation and respect it,” he told me.
“There will be a new British prime minister and we will work with him. Look at what happened during the Brexit negotiations. In four years I worked with four different British negotiators. It was also a volatile situation, but we managed.”
During those long years of often contentious Brexit negotiations, Barnier was famous among us journalists for having a coffee mug made with the slogan: Just keep calm and keep negotiating.
That’s a pretty bold paraphrase of the saying Just keep calm and carry on which originated in Great Britain in 1939 as a government propaganda poster for World War II, designed to maintain public morale and resolve.
Barnier was also famous for allegedly being relentless in the face of British demands for a “special deal” with the EU.
And not unlike the Paris carousel, similar British arguments seem to have resurfaced now that the Labor government has tried to move much closer to parts of the EU’s single market, yet not send too much money across the Channel, or accept the free movement of EU workers to the UK, where the immigration debate rages.
This is the “choosiness” that Brussels said 10 years ago it would not tolerate.
The United Kingdom could not leave the club and still retain the most cherished privileges.
The threat to the EU from within
I covered all the twists and turns of those negotiations for the BBC, but the outside world has changed dramatically since then.
Europe’s former best friend, the United States of America, under Donald Trump has become unpredictable, even aggressive towards former allies.
And then there is Russia, which is waging a dynamic war on European soil, in Ukraine, and a hybrid war, in terms of disinformation, sabotage and more, across the rest of the continent.
And who can forget China?
The European mainstream believes the EU faces an existential threat from the bloc itself as well, with Eurosceptic parties gaining strength in many countries.
Could increased synergy with the United Kingdom – the second largest economic and military power in Europe, despite its well-known problems – serve as an advantage for the EU in these new circumstances?
Closer defense ties have been well established for some time.
And what about the economy?
Speaking to me shortly after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, Michel Barnier told me that in his view the EU “sincerely welcomes” any British request for closer relations.
He says he still sees Britain’s decision to leave the single market as a loss for both sides.
But he also insisted, as always, that the single market is the crown jewel of the European Union.
Especially in light of the difficult times in which Europe has fallen, Barnier insists that Brussels cannot and should not jeopardize its greatest advantage in order to make special deals with the United Kingdom.
“We are in a much more dangerous, more unstable, more fragile world, and we have to preserve our strengths and preserve our unity. That’s the point for us.”
“There is no aggression, there is no vengeful spirit towards the UK, but the UK must understand that it will not be possible to tear apart or threaten the single market… We must not take that risk.”
Barnier then described what he sees as an additional threat to the EU from within its own ranks, drawing a parallel with the leader of the British Reform Party, Nigel Farage, who was a member of the European Parliament before Brexit.
Farage was famous for leading a long and aggressive campaign for Britain to leave the bloc.
“In many of our countries we have our Farages, such as Le Pen or Bardella (presidential candidate of the National Alliance (Rassemblement National) if Le Pen can’t run because of corruption charges) in far-right France,” Michel Barnier added.
“You have a lot of Farages in Europe who want to destroy us. No way, no way.”
Farage has often stated that he “hates” the EU, but loves Europe.
He denied that his goal was to completely destroy the EU.
What 2027 could bring for the EU
However, Michel Barnier fears (and he is far from the only voice in EU circles) that if you compromise the rules of Brussels and make attractive economic bargains with non-member countries, such as Great Britain, it strengthens the Eurosceptic parties who call for the exit of their countries from the EU or will drastically weaken the common rules and regulations that hold the EU countries together.
That’s exactly what Fabrice Ledgeri has in mind.
He is a member of the European Parliament for Marine Le Pen’s ultra-right National Alliance and very close to the party’s leadership.
I chatted with him in a gossip-prone overcrowded cafe in the European Parliament in Brussels.
He was in a very optimistic mood.
“We are very confident that 2027 will be a very important year, a turning point, if we win the elections in France,” he told me.
Polls indicate that Marine Le Pen’s Eurosceptic party has a better chance than ever to win the French presidency.
The French president has enormous powers in foreign policy, including EU affairs.
As the most prominent country in the EU, next to Germany, this could have a huge impact on Brussels.
Ledgeri told me the National Alliance wants the EU to be much tougher on non-EU migration and to scrap ambitious green regulation, which he describes as “nonsense” and damaging to European industry.
His party wants to reduce French contributions to the EU budget.
He has long opposed sending military aid to Ukraine.
Across Europe, 2027 is a mega election year.
Ledger and the National Alliance hope that related Eurosceptic parties will win majorities or significant roles in coalition governments in major EU powers Italy, Spain and Poland, as well as France.
Together we have the possibility to change the EU from the inside, says Ledgeri.
Even alone, France could bring the EU to its knees in many respects.
Just think how the emphatically Eurosceptic former prime minister of a much smaller Hungary, Viktor Orbán, has managed to freeze and undermine joint EU decisions in the past.
“We’re preparing for the future,” Ledgeri told me in confidence.
“I had the honor of accompanying Mr. Bardella to London, when he met with Mr. Farage, before Christmas.
“If Farage becomes the next British Prime Minister, and if the National Alliance comes to power in France next year, I can tell you that I see the possibility of great cooperation.”
EU after Brexit
Farage’s political fortunes are closely followed here.
As much as the EU would like the UK to get closer economically, Brussels wants to know definitively what the vast majority of the British people want from the EU and what they are willing to give up in exchange.
Only then, I am told, will the EU consider making very significant deals with the British Prime Minister.
Until then, apart from those EU countries that trade most with the UK (such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands) and therefore suffer with the Brexit red tape as well, most say they are happy with the status quo – the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the EU and the UK at the end of their post-Brexit negotiations.
And when it comes to the EU itself, it is fascinating that in 2016, after the British vote on Brexit, there was a widespread forecast of a “domino effect”.
Italy will come out next, followed by Denmark or Sweden.
France will also come out.
The increasingly strong EU Eurosceptic parties called for Frexit, Swegzit, Italexit and much more.
But that didn’t happen.
Why?
According to German Conservative MEP David McAllister, EU voters saw the UK plunge into crisis after the Brexit vote; they watched the long and painful negotiations with the EU that followed and decided it wasn’t worth it.
A decade after Brexit, a new poll by the Pew Research Center suggests that a vote that severely damaged British unity may have helped the EU close its own ranks.
Across the UK and seven EU member states, tracked consistently since 2016, 62 per cent of respondents now have a positive view of the EU, compared with 49 per cent a decade ago.
Armida van Rij of the Center for European Reform points to renewed efforts by a long list of European countries that want to join the ranks of the EU – none more so than Ukraine.
At the same time, as we have already mentioned, among the existing EU member states, nationalist Eurosceptic parties are popular.
While more traditional European leaders, from Germany’s Mertz to France’s Macron and Poland’s Tusk, seem tired, even weak.
Most Europeans say they believe the EU is far from perfect, but, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, they have decided that, in our turbulent world, it is safer in a group.
It’s better to stick together.
France’s National Alliance, Germany’s AfD, Austria’s Freedom Party and others have adapted slogans to appeal to as many voters as possible.
Brexit as a topic is history, Michel Barnier told me.
Brussels is worried about the potential growth of EU Eurospekt power.
He genuinely cares.
Top image: Getty Images
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