COMMENTARY: Geothermal and EVs: Dominica’s fastest route to energy sovereignty

Editor’s note: This is the second article of a three-part series. All views, and assertions presented therein are solely those of the author.

Geothermal is the enabling infrastructure for transport electrification: it reduces diesel generation, stabilises electricity costs, and turns Electric Vehicle (EV) charging into domestic energy instead of imported fuel.

Many people say: “EVs are fine, but we would just be charging them on diesel electricity.”

That objection is exactly why geothermal matters. Electrification is not simply a transport policy—it becomes an economic transformation when the electricity behind it becomes domestic, stable, and increasingly renewable.

Geothermal is no longer hypothetical

Dominica has already publicly set a commissioning timetable for its geothermal plant, and as we noted in our previous article the modest 10Mw output of our geothermal plant should be fully integrated into the national grid by June of this year.

The point is not to argue over a date by a few weeks. The point is that geothermal has moved from “promise” to “delivery,” and the sooner we expand it, the sooner we can electrify transport without increasing exposure to imported fuel.

Why this is an FX (Foreign Exchange) strategy, not just an energy strategy

Dominica’s fuel import bill is substantial for a small economy. Trading data places mineral fuels and related imports around US$56.3 million (2023). We should just note that in small open economies like ours, foreign exchange is the most critical asset the nation owns and the degree of efficiency with which it is used has an outsize impact on our standard of living.

That outflow is not stable. It rises when global oil prices rise, when freight and insurance costs rise, and when geopolitics shakes supply. Dominica cannot outbid the world for oil.

We can only do one serious thing: reduce the volume we must buy.

The most strategic lesson from 2025: deadlines drive behaviour

The late-2025 “newer used” ICE surge should teach us something: once incentives change, markets move.

So instead of lamenting the surge, we should design the next phase so that the market moves the way we want:

 Make EV imports simple and predictable
 Make financing available
 Make charging reliable
 Make geothermal expansion non-negotiable

What electrifying the fleet really means

Dominica has roughly 40,000 licensed vehicles on the road system (by practical estimate). Full electrification does not happen overnight because vehicles last a long time.

But we do not need full electrification to get big results. We need a plan that cuts fuel imports fastest. That plan is “fleet first.”

Phase 1 (2026–2029): Electrify high-mileage fleets

Taxis, buses, government fleets, rentals, deliveries. These vehicles burn fuel daily.

Electrifying them produces the quickest national savings, and it creates visible proof that the technology works.

Phase 2 (2028–2032): Make most new imports EV by default

Set clear categories and dates. Keep exemptions for specialised equipment where electrification is not yet practical—but end the assumption that importing passenger ICE vehicles is “normal forever.”

Phase 3 (2032 onward): Accelerate turnover with economics, not force

As EV charging becomes routine and geothermal expands, the operating-cost advantage becomes decisive. People will choose EVs because it makes financial sense.

The role of Government: make the incentives real in the hands of citizens

If incentives remain unclear, adoption remains slow. One of the surprising things I discovered in moving from an ICE to an EV was that my insurance company would not insure my EV! In point of fact I only found an insurance company willing to insure my car after calling 5 companies! The Government needs to move quickly to amend and/or introduce legislation that would require all insurers licensed to sell insurance on motor vehicles to end the discrimination against EV’s promptly. We should insure the future, not the past!

One concern which a number of persons have expressed to me is this: Where will I find a mechanic who can service my EV? This is a fair question. I will try to point to a solution.

China is already the largest producer of EV’s in the world as per the recent report of the Ambassador of China to Dominica. We already have a training and education programme with China. A diplomatic note to the Ambassador should be sufficient to arrange top quality training for our mechanics and lecturers in automotive maintenance and repair. In six months or so we can remedy the perceived lack of knowledge of EV maintenance – a four year degree is not needed.

Government-linked incentive guidance already points to duty/VAT exemptions for EVs.

What is missing is public clarity and speed. Every month of confusion is another month of ICE lock-in.

We should publish:

 a one-page EV incentive guide,
 a standard checklist for import approvals,
 and a simple financing pathway for fleets (especially those that serve the public).

What the fuel savings look like for a typical Dominican driver

This is where the argument becomes real. Dominicans understand the pump.

At today’s petrol (pre-March 30th) a 2012 RAV4 burns real money. An EV of about the same weight uses electricity—still not cheap in Dominica, but materially cheaper per mile. (see Box below)

And the day geothermal expands and the fuel component of electricity falls to zero, EV charging becomes even more attractive.

In Part 3, I will connect this to the global shock now unfolding: war risks, shipping choke-points, and why geothermal expansion is not just “green.” It is national insurance.

2012 RAV4 vs Comparable EV—energy cost per 100 miles (Imperial gallons)

Petrol price (30 Mar 2026): EC$4.14/L.

That equals EC$18.82 per Imperial gallon.

2012 Toyota RAV4 fuel economy (US EPA combined):

 2WD: 4.2 US gal / 100 miles (24 mpg combined)
 4WD: 4.3 US gal / 100 miles (23 mpg combined) Converted to Imperial gallons and costed at EC$18.82/Imp gal:
 RAV4 2WD: ≈ EC$65.82 per 100 miles
 RAV4 4WD: ≈ EC$67.39 per 100 miles

Comparable EV (compact SUV class) example: BYD Atto 3 WLTP 16 kWh/100 km.

That is ≈ 25.75 kWh/100 miles (before charging losses). Using a conservative residential tariff reference of ~US$0.39/kWh (Energy Report Card 2023) and allowing ~10% charging losses, the EV comes out around:

 ≈ EC$30 per 100 miles

Savings: roughly EC$36–EC$37 per 100 miles.

At 6,000 miles/year, that is about EC$2,100–EC$2,200 per year in energy savings—before maintenance savings.