The price of oil drilled US$100 per barrel this Tuesday and marked a sharp turn in the markets, after a day of extreme volatility marked by the war in the Middle East. The fall occurred after the announcement by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks.
As reported Bloombergcrude oil futures plummeted to the US$91after having operated during the day at levels above US$110. Washington’s decision, mediated by efforts from Pakistan, was conditional on Iran guaranteeing the complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Based on the conversations (…) I agree to suspend bombings and attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump wrote on social networks.
The price of Brent oil rose sharply again during the early hours and exceeded US$111 per barrel on Tuesday, driven by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the growing risk over the Strait of Hormuz, the most sensitive point of global energy traffic.
However, at the end of the round the trend was reversed, in the expectation that Donald Trump would extend the countdown that he had set for Iran to reopen the maritime passage. Thus, Brent fell to US$103.63 a barrel, while US WTI crude oil exceeded US$110.
“An entire civilization will die tonight,” the North American president had warned during the morning, through a strong post on his social networks. The key fact is structural: about 20% of the world’s oil supply circulates through the Strait of Hormuz. When that channel is blocked, the impact is immediate and global.
Why is oil rising today?
The market stopped moving by expectations and began to react to concrete events. The strait was de facto closed after attacks by the United States and Israel in late February, and Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal, hardening its stance. Washington’s threat is direct: If Iran does not reopen the passage by the deadline, it could face attacks on key infrastructure, such as bridges and power plants.
In this context, oil became a pure risk asset. Operators are already discounting a scenario where the damage is not limited to the short term. “The risk on the battlefield is no longer theoretical,” noted analysts cited by Reuters.
The Hormuz effect: a global bottleneck
The problem is not just the war, but where it occurs. The Strait of Hormuz functions as a true global oil bottleneck.
The consequences are already seen:
Even if the conflict is defused, the market fears that damage to energy infrastructure will leave millions of barrels out of circulation for months.
More pressure: Russia, OPEC+ and the war factor
The tension is amplified with other fronts. Russia reported drone attacks on a key terminal in the Black Sea, which it operates near the 1.5% of global supply.
At the same time, the OPEC+ announced an increase in production for May, but the market puts it into perspective: It is not enough to produce more if the oil cannot be transported.
The result is a classic decoupling in crisis contexts: the theoretical supply rises, but the real supply falls.
What can happen to the price of Brent
Today oil is not in an economic equilibrium, but in a geopolitical balance. The price reflects fear more than the fundamentals.
There are two scenarios that dominate the market:
But there is a key nuance: Even with peace, the damage already done could sustain high prices.
Impact in Argentina: opportunity and risk
For Argentina, the new scenario opens a window and a problem at the same time. On the one hand, improves the profitability of Vaca Muerta and boosts the income of dollars from energy exports.
On the other hand, it implies:
Oil, once again, ceased to be just a commodity. It once again became a factor of global power. And when that happens, the price stops responding to traditional economic logic and begins to depend on something much more difficult to predict: war.
