Gilles Kepel: «The country is in pieces and the internal repression is terrifying. Europe? It proves to be an enemy of Trump’s USA”
«The Iranian regime finds itself in a very difficult situation. The country is in disaster. And there is a lack of a truly charismatic leader capable of mediating between moderates and extremists, as happened in the past”, he maintains the political scientist Gilles Kepel interviewed by Courier.
As law the choice to finally send the Foreign Minister to IslamabadAbbas Araghchi?
«The White House has exerted enormous pressure on Tehran, without resorting to weapons, but with a naval counterblock. And now the Americans enjoy a small advantage: Iran is also destroyed in its civilian infrastructure. The internal repression is terrifying: every day there are death sentences and executions of opponents. But precisely the US naval counterblockade, which is essentially pirate-like like the Iranian one in Hormuz, was the most successful measure. Today Iran can no longer export oil, it lacks the money to operate the little that is left standing. The internal situation is so serious that even its most extremist leaders are forced to accept the resumption of negotiations.”
Why does Araghchi on the way to Pakistan talk to Russia and Oman?
«Iran has isolated itself by bombing allied or non-enemy countries in the Gulf. The bombs, especially against Qatar in the hot phase of the war, may have been useful in creating chaos. But Qatar was a friend of Tehran, they were united by the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood against US imperialism, and today they are no longer so. What could have been useful in the war becomes a huge problem in the political phase. Furthermore, many nations of the global south are suffering the consequences of the Hormuz blockade, the lack of oil and fertilizers generates gigantic economic damage. Iran is no longer the hero in the fight against Washington, but rather the perpetrator of poverty. Hence his attempt to escape isolation, but I don’t think it will work with Oman, which is controlled by the Gulf monarchies.”
Consequences?
«The relative Iranian successes of the first weeks of the war are things of the past. Today the regime is more in crisis than ever.”
How much weight should we give to the internal divisions of the Iranian ruling class, which are certainly not new?
«In the past the Supreme Leader was the final arbiter. Depending on the moment, the regime left a relative space for struggles between fundamentalists and moderates. The figure of the president was generally that of a leader open to Western influences such as Khatami or Rouhani, but then came the caesura and the leader from Khomeini to Khamenei closed ranks, saying the last word. Today there is no one left. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the last Supreme Leader: an unprecedented fact for the tradition of the Islamic Republic, which has always rejected the principle of dynastic succession. Furthermore, Mojtaba, whose state of health is unknown, absolutely does not have his father’s charisma, he is not a great expert in the Shiite faith, he does not have intellectual and religious credentials, he is a simple militant of the Pasdaran”.
A regime without legitimacy?
«Of course, Mojtaba does not have the qualifications to exercise the power that they gave him under the pressure of the bombings. It cannot be the key that brings together internal political tensions. This is the big difference with the past. We also saw this during the negotiations with the USA. First there was the article by former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javas Zarif, which on Foreign Affairs spoke of the need for negotiation. Then the regime’s hardliners slowed down, aiming for a military solution. Today the counter-bloc pushed the pragmatist camp, with President Pezezshkian and their ambassador to the UN, they overcame the resistance of those who preferred talks in Istanbul and sent Araghchi to Pakistan.”
And Europe?
«Europe proves to be the enemy of Trump’s United States. However, it is mobilizing to keep the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb open after the end of the war while awaiting the midterm elections, which could seriously cripple Trump.”
