A worker who today earns minimum wage receives about $1.75 million per month, not counting transportation assistance. With the caps of between 7% and 10% proposed by unions and economists, that figure would be between $1.87 million and $1.93 million in 2027, while the Unitary Central of Workers (CUT) proposes that the negotiation start by adding 32 points to inflation.
The difference between these two positions is about 30 percentage points in the proposed increases, that is, 525,000 pesos or 17,500 pesos in the daily minimum wage.
That difference, experts say, may be enough for inflation to continue losing control and formal employment to continue to be hit.
He minimum wage is defined each year in the Permanent Commission for Coordination of Salary and Labor Policiesa table where the Government, the union centers and the business associations sit. According to the Law 278 of 1996that table must seek an agreement on December 15and if you don’t succeed, The Government establishes it by decree before the end of the year.
By 2026, the minimum rose 23.7% and it amounted to about $1.75 million, not counting transportation aid. He Council of State suspended that decree provisionally and, on February 16, the Commission supported maintaining the percentageAs the Minister of Labor announced then, Antonio Sanguino.
For the 2027 cycle, The Commission met at the beginning of October in an extraordinary meeting, with an agenda that included digital platforms, domestic work and outsourcing. The Minister of Labor, Natalia Lopezsaid there that “dialogue does not mean thinking alike; means listen to each other, agree and build on our differences“.
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Between 7 and 10 percent
He Government has said that the adjustment will depend on inflation and labor productivity, that is, how much each worker produces on average. He Banco de Bogotá made the account with the inflation expected by the end of 2026, close to 6.8%, and the recent growth in productivity, of 1.2%. The result is 8%, which would take the minimum to about $1.89 million. He Official productivity data will be known on November 30.
The entity adds that The Government could lean towards 8.5%because the first real increase of each government It is usually less than the last of his term. With that percentage, the bank projects that inflation would close 2027 at 5.2%.
Business unions ask to be lower of that figure. Natalia Gutierrezpresident of the National Trade Council and Acolgén, maintains that the increase must be single digits and “maximum of 7%subject to definitive inflation and productivity data.”
For her, “an increase well above the technical criteria pushes MSMEs into informality and leaves out those who most need formal employment. A Responsible adjustment helps lower inflation and interest rates, and that better protects the household pocketbook than an increase that then eats up inflation”.
The president of Fenalco, Jaime Alberto Cabalplace the ceiling a little higher. According to him, returning to the technical criteria is what the law orders and means maintain the purchasing power of wages. “If inflation is around 7% and productivity must be between one and two, the minimum wage should not exceed 9%“he stated.
The president of Acopi, the association of micro, small and medium-sized businesses, Maria Elena Ospinastill does not have a figure. For her, “you have to take into account how it is going to be pronounced the Council of State regarding the nullity or not of the 2026 salary, this decision will allow having a floor for negotiation“.
To these calculations, companies add costs that are already defined by the labor reform. From July 2026 the 42-hour day governs weekly and, from July 2027, the surcharge for working Sundays and holidays will pass from 90% to 100%. “The Financial planning for work will be more demanding every day“said Juan Pablo López, partner at the labor law firm López & Asociados.
Andres Alvarezprofessor at the Faculty of Economics of the Universidad de los Andes, agrees to use those criteriabut with a cap of 10%. His account adds inflation “around 7%” and 3 points of productivity, which he himself described as generous.
This year’s increase, he explained, “have generated not only inflationary pressuresbut also pressures on public spending because public employment is a formal job and their costs risepension costs also rise and Colombian pension liabilities are growing“.
Oliver Pardodirector of the Xaverian Center for Competitiveness, proposes the lowest figure. “The minimum wage should not increase more than 7%which corresponds to the inflation projected for 2026. The reason is that from 2022 the minimum wage has been increasing faster than labor productivity,” he stated. In that period, he said, the minimum grew 30% in real termswhile productivity has been practically stagnant.
MinTrabajo opens space for domestic workers in the agreement on the 2027 minimum wage. Photo:MinWork
The minimum living wage
On the other side of the table, the CUT, one of the union centers that are part of the Commission, proposes a different discussion. Your president, Fabio Ariassuggests that the starting point is not inflation and productivity, but rather the so-called minimum living wage. “He minimum wage in Colombia must reach the minimum living wageas established by the ILO study and which President Petro began to apply“, said.
According to Arias, that International Labor Organization study found a gap of almost 50 points. He increase of 2026 closed close to 18once inflation in 2025 is discounted, of 5.1%. “There are then 32 pending“he stated.
For the leader, that balance must be added to inflation. “There, along with inflation, The discussion must begin in the Concertation Commission“, he said. With inflation of around 6.5%, the sum gives 38.5%the figure that has circulated as a starting point for the workers and that union organizations still need to be reviewed.
Minimum wage Photo:Minimum wage
These positions will reach a Commission that You have until December 15 to seek an agreement and that, if not achieved, The Government must issue by decreeas was the case with the budget for 2027.
María Alejandra Moreno Flórez
Economic Journalist
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