This year’s annual summit of Pacific Island Forum (PIF) leaders, occurring less than two months after China fired a long-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile into the South Pacific, was an opportunity for the region to speak collectively about its security and sovereignty concerns.
At the end of the summit, 16 of 18 Pacific states endorsed a joint statement registering “concern on the recent intercontinental ballistic missile test which overflew a number of members without adequate notice.” Of the 18, only Nauru and Kiribati, both of which enjoy close ties to Beijing, declined to sign the statement.
The pushback likely came as little surprise to China, which on July 6 conducted a rare missile test in the region, launching from one of its nuclear-powered submarines in the South China Sea an intercontinental ballistic missile that traveled more than 4,300 miles and landed in international waters in the South Pacific. Many PIF nations have signed a treaty that defines the region as a nuclear-free zone.
The missile test was also criticized by other Pacific countries at the time. Australia, New Zealand, Palau and Republic of the Marshall Islands supported a statement with the U.S. and more than 30 other nations in mid-August stressing that “conducting nuclear-capable ballistic missile tests without sufficient advance notice and detail is dangerous and disrupts the peace and security of relevant nations in proximity to these tests.”
At the summit, leaders from across the region expressed their frustration with China. “A unified Pacific voice is critical in getting Beijing to respect sovereignty, to respect transparency and to be a responsible partner,” Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr., who also hosted this year’s summit, told reporters. “I think that’s the message that we should be sending to Beijing.”
This unhappiness was not limited to the missile test. The 18 Forum member states, from Papua New Guinea to Samoa and Solomon Islands to the Federated States of Micronesia, have been the focus of the ongoing diplomatic tussle between China, an official PIF “dialogue partner,” and Taiwan, a PIF “development partner,” a lesser and more functional status. Still, it took no one by surprise that Chinese officials expressed their displeasure that this year’s summit took place in Palau, one of only three Pacific Island states that still recognize Taiwan, and where Taiwanese aid and cooperation were prominently displayed.
Qian Bo, the Chinese Special Envoy for Pacific Islands Affairs told journalists that “there will always be consequences” when Taiwan is perceived as receiving favorable treatment.
“Our partners are welcome to sail with us, but they do not choose our destination,” Whipps stressed during the opening ceremony on August 31, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia, a full member of the PIF, backed him up. “The Pacific Islands Forum determines what happens here, not any other country,” Albanese told reporters the following day in response to the Chinese position that Taiwan’s representatives should not have been invited to the summit.
China claimed that its missile test was part of routine military training, and the missile test is known to have occurred at the time of a joint naval exercise between China and Russia, though it is unclear whether the test was part of the exercise. The separate notices issued to foreign nations, in numerous cases less than 24 hours, fell short of accepted international procedures. Still the Chinese Foreign Ministry rejected the PIF’s criticism, claiming that “Palau’s repeated hype and attempts to manipulate the positions of other Pacific Island Forum member states are malicious and will not succeed.” Despite the July test, as well as another in September 2024 that also drew protests after it landed in the South Pacific, and specifically the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone, Beijing insisted that it promotes peace and stability in the Pacific.
“China likely sought to use the missile test to showcase resolve and frustration at U.S. allies and partners,” according to an analysis by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which noted that the test occurred on the same day as Australia and Fiji signed a landmark “Ocean of Peace Alliance” mutual defense treaty in Suva. Subsequently, China’s Foreign Ministry issued a public challenge to Australia to “respect the independence of Pacific Island nations…and avoid targeting any third party or harming the interest of any third party.”
Indeed, that Australia-Fiji accord was only the latest in a series of setbacks to Beijing in the region. Other recent developments that could have contributed to China’s “frustrations” include the Nakamal Agreement that Australia signed with Vanuatu on June 29, which seeks “to deepen, expand and advance” security cooperation and prohibits any foreign military base or infrastructure in the Pacific Island state.
Two weeks earlier, the newly elected Solomon Islands’ prime minister, Matthew Wale, proposed the creation of a regional Pacific-led security treaty, which would exclude China, during his visit to Australia on June 15. Meanwhile, the AUKUS Agreement between Australia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom, which will facilitate the construction of new nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, remains in effect, but it has done little to reduce geostrategic tensions between Washington and its regional allies and Beijing.
A sense that China is asserting itself more forcefully into the region, in part by displaying the build-up of its military prowess, is hard to miss. Last February, Chinese naval vessels voyaged far south and carried out provocative “live-fire” military exercises in the Tasman Sea, which separates Australia and New Zealand, and close to Australia’s east coast. The three warships involved then embarked on a partial circumnavigation of the Australian coastline, a route that, according to Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, was “not unprecedented, but an unusual event.” That incident coincided in part with the high-level visit to Australia by Admiral Samuel J. Paparo, who was then head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (now Pacific Command).
The U.S. was also a significant presence at the PIF meet in Palau. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau used the occasion to announce a major economic assistance package for the Pacific Islands worth more than $150 million that will support energy security, infrastructure and digital development, law enforcement, and scientific cooperation. According to the U.S. Department of State, “our commitment to the security and prosperity of the Pacific Islands is steadfast, enduring and a key pillar of our America First Foreign Policy.”
Western powers are clearly concerned about the recent weapons test in the context of broader shifts in the defense landscape in the western Pacific, as China sustains high investments in its military modernization program and seeks parity in armed forces and nuclear capabilities. Although it has a significantly smaller defense budget than the U.S., China has increased its defense spending 13-fold in 30 years, from $25.1 billion in constant 2023 dollars in 1995 to an estimated $247 billion in 2025, and doubled its possession of nuclear warheads in the past six years, according to the CSIS.
As China has declined thus far to engage on arms control negotiations with the West, the recent missile tests and uptick in its military operations in the Pacific suggest to some that it could be testing the reactions and resolve of its geopolitical competitors.
From Your Site Articles
Related Articles Around the Web
