Constituency name: Galway West
Seats: Five
Current TDs: Noel Grealish (Independent), Hildegarde Naughton (Fine Gael), Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin), John Connolly (Fianna Fáil). Vacant seat was held by Catherine Connolly (Independent).
Area covered: The constituency is the western side of Co Galway and had a population of 150,000 at the time of Census 2022. It can be broken up into four distinct regions: North Connemara and Inishbofin; the country’s biggest Gaeltacht of South Connemara; the islands; and the east and northeast of Galway city taking in Oranmore, Claregalway, Annaghdown and Corrandulla.
Why is there a vacancy? Connolly topped the poll in last year’s presidential election and succeeded Michael D Higgins.
Candidates: Twelve candidates, seven of whom are based in the city, have declared. They are Independents Mike Cubbard, Sheila Garrity and Tom Welby; Cillian Keane (Fianna Fáil); Seán Kyne (Fine Gael); Mark Lohan (Sinn Féin); Niall Murphy (Green Party); Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (Social Democrats); Orla Nugent (Aontú); Helen Ogbu (Labour); Denman Rooke (People Before Profit); and Noel Thomas (Independent Ireland).
Issues: Fuel and energy prices, as well as the cost of living, have been significant issues on the doorsteps. The Port of Galway was the site of one of the three big blockades during the recent fuel protests, leaving much of Connemara and other outlying areas without diesel or petrol. Housing and transport also remain big issues, with Galway having a reputation as the most congested city in the State.
Likely outcome: In the 2024 general election, the combined strength of the left candidates, including Sinn Féin and Connolly, was 36 per cent, with the two Fianna Fáil and two Fine Gael candidates securing 36 per cent between them. The remaining 28 per cent was made up of rural Independents (Noel Grealish), Independent Ireland (Thomas) and others from the centre and right. Based on that, it could be a candidate from the centre or centre right who prevails, but byelections have their own characteristics and can often turn on a strong personality, or a particular party or candidate catching early momentum. Turnout will also be crucial.
On paper, Sinn Féin is the strongest party by far, but Lohan does not have a high profile. Ogbu does have a profile, but the Labour candidate will need to extend her reach outside the city. The same can be said for Garrity, a left independent, who is seen as the Connolly continuity candidate. Nic Fhionnlaoich was an unknown when selected for the Social Democrats, but is an Irish native speaker and could do well in both Connemara and the city.
Thomas, of Independent Ireland, was prominent in recent fuel protests and is seen by some as an early favourite. He left Fianna Fáil after it tried to discipline him when he made comments about immigration in 2023 following an arson attack on a former hotel earmarked for emergency accommodation near Oughterard, an act Thomas condemned.
The most high-profile candidate is Kyne, a Fine Gael Senator. However, voters tend to use byelections as a means to criticise incumbent governments, which will be a hard trend to buck. The same obstacle faces Keane, the young Oranmore-based Fianna Fáil councillor. Cubbard, the Mayor of Galway, is an independent centrist candidate who should do well in the city. Aontú, like Independent Ireland, is on an upward curve and has a strong candidate in Nugent, who is also an Irish speaker. Welby, from Oughterard, is from a breakaway independent group that first supported Bobby Molloy when he left Fianna Fáil 40 years ago. He is closely associated with Grealish and with a number of Independent councillors in the city, all of whom are former Progressive Democrats.
Wider political implications: It will be interesting to see if the united left agreement which propelled Connolly to the presidency in October will hold in Galway West. A “Tonn na Clé” (left wave) group has been set up and left-wing parties have coordinated. People Before Profit’s Rooke has made a stir during the campaign and has already called on the Green Party’s Murphy to be excluded from the alliance over his ownership of shares in Cisco, a company accused of doing business with illegal Israeli settlements through a subsidiary.
