Key Takeaways:
- A July 2026 Chinese ICBM test in the Pacific is framed as exposing weak maritime rules and leaving small island states exposed. At the September Pacific Islands Forum in Palau, leaders condemned the test and called for future firings only inside the tester’s own territory, with at least 24 hours’ notice; Nauru dissented. Beijing said the shot was lawful and that Indonesia and others were warned.
- The author (retired Indonesian diplomat Simon Hutagalung) says current notice practice does not protect aviation, fisheries, the environment, or sea lanes—and it undercuts Indonesia’s aim of keeping great-power rivalry from wrecking Indo-Pacific development. ASEAN alone is too narrow; Jakarta should work with the Forum on IUU fishing, climate, disasters, and sea-lane safety under UNCLOS.
- Indonesia’s proposed role: push non-discriminatory, law-based ICBM-test notification and confidence-building, while balancing China as an economic partner against security independence. Engage the Forum carefully so outside agendas do not swallow the islands. Sources cited: Reuters, 11 August and 4 September 2026.
Preliminary assessments of the July 2026 Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile test in the Pacific region revealed significant gaps in the current global maritime system and exposed serious defects in the current framework for managing the greater Indo-Pacific region. The test posed particular and pressing questions concerning safety, sovereignty, and the safeguarding of the interests of small island states and their governments and citizens in the face of increased strategic engagements by major powers across the world’s seas.
At the August foreign ministers meeting the Pacific and Pixmap region was unable to be spoken with one voice but at the subsequent Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Palau in September leaders collectively and severely condemned the test and, importantly, urged all countries to conduct similar tests within their sovereign borders only and after providing all relevant countries and other stakeholders with advance notification of not less than twenty-four hours as is the normal international practice. Notably, Nauru registered dissent from this portion of the communique.
While China argued that its test was conducted entirely within its sovereign rights and that sufficient warnings had been given to relevant states including Indonesia, existing maritime notification practices are manifestly inadequate to protect the interests of smaller states affected by major military activities conducted in their surroundings. Not only civil aviation, fisheries, and the environment are threatened by such unannounced tests of military might, but also major shipping lanes bearing enormous quantities of world trade. In the short- to medium-term, such activities pose a strategic challenge to Indonesia’s consistent policy of preventing intense great-power contestation of the Indo-Pacific from undermining regional economic development. While traditionally such issues have been dealt with within the framework of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it is within the domain of regional maritime governance that Indonesia can most constructively play a leading role.
Although ASEAN remains an important component of the independent and active foreign policy of Indonesia, challenges in security and trade that are developing in other parts of the world cannot be solely addressed within the geography of Southeast Asia. These challenges are increasingly becoming interconnected and developing in the geography of the Pacific, affecting the security, trade, and maritime interests of Southeast Asia. In order to strengthen ASEAN and to increase ASEAN’s strategic autonomy, Indonesia will have to extend its strategic horizon to the Pacific and increase its cooperation with Pacific island countries and with the Pacific Islands Forum. The independent and active foreign policy of Indonesia should be applied consistently in addressing these challenges by always adhering to international law, resolving disputes peacefully, and by being a supporter of maritime interests according to UNCLOS.
This test also gives Indonesia the strategic opportunity to develop the country’s foreign policy on several key issues. Indonesia, through its stance as an independent and active foreign policy player, can urge all countries that conduct tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles to apply non-discriminatory, transparent and based on international law such as giving advance notification to countries in the vicinity of the test area. These efforts can be conducted through structured dialogue between ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum to face challenges of maritime security such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, climate change effects, natural disasters, and the protection of sea lanes to the world. Through these, Indonesia hopes that it can contribute to increasing the strategic autonomy of both regions.
A concrete foreign policy role for Indonesia consists of urging and promoting confidence-building measures to bring matters of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing and associated high-risk military exercises under greater international control. Indonesia has for some time been a supporter of advance notification of military activities which could pose a risk of dangerous miscalculations and cause loss of life and property, and activities which could have a detrimental environmental impact. The country’s approach to China is of crucial significance. For Indonesia, China is an important economic partner, while at the same time Indonesia’s relations with China also give rise to questions concerning regional security. A careful balancing act will be required in order to maintain relations with China, to which due importance is attached in economic terms, at the same time as Indonesia can express its views on all important issues affecting the country’s interests and maintain its independence. Notifications by all states of military activities conducted within their sovereign territories and territories under their control must be in accordance with international law and due account must be taken of the interests of other states. This is something which Indonesia is striving to achieve.
Influencing regional dynamics for the good of the Pacific and, more broadly, for greater regional stability as part of an emerging and increasingly interconnected global architecture induced by evolving great power dynamics is critical. Its legitimacy and sustainability can be strengthened significantly, and its, arguably, core objectives advanced, by external actors—particularly those from neighbouring geo-regions like Southeast Asia. It is, therefore, critical that the International Organization for Pacific Island Forum affairs are managed with due care, respect, and circumspection. This will have the significant effect of shielding the regional organization and, more generally, the little island states that comprise its membership, from potential trespasses and conflicting foreign policy interests that may be motivated by hidden and not-so-hidden agendas. Indonesia’s engagement with other external organizations such as ASEAN has, thus, the potential to greatly fortify the organization’s legitimacy.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.
References
- Cramer, Lucy. (2026, August 11). China missile test deepens Pacific divide over growing militarisation. Reuters
- Jose, Renji. (2026, September 4). Pacific summit backs concerns over China missile test despite Nauru dissent. Reuters.
